Step one

I took the afternoon off work in Mexico to watch Denmark take its first step towards the World Cup. After a nervous first half, the Danish dominance was rewarded in the second half nevertheless, and with goals from Mikkel Damsgaard, Gustav Isaksen with two goals, and an Olympic goal by Christian Eriksen that was credited to his namesake Nørgaard, Denmark won a comfortable victory. It looked good; the Danes dominated, pressured and had possession. There is reason to be optimistic about the final against Czechia, who had to come back from 0-2 and penalty kicks to defeat Ireland.  

That said, it will be a completely different match with big strong Czechs who play hard and have an advantage in the air against unseasoned Danish defense. But Denmark are the better side, so if the manager sets the right team and they can keep their head cool, Denmark has a fairly good shot at coming here to Mexico.

Kom nu.

It will happen

There are so many doubts about the World Cup right now, due to the complex geopolitical situation. Some weeks ago I bought a ticket for the play-off match between Iraq and the winner of Bolivia/Surinam on March 31st, to take place in Monterrey. I am treating it as an excuse to visit the state of Nuevo Leon, including the iconic BBVA stadium, and see a match that will go into the history books of one of these nations.

But there have been many doubts about Iraq: due to the war in Iran, Iraqi airspace has been closed down, and until today there were doubts whether the team would even be able to make it to Mexico. Today the doubts seem to have been cast aside, and the match will go ahead as the Iraqi team will have chartered a private plane to take them to Mexico.

I am looking forward to my little pre-world cup adventure in Northern Mexico in a couple of weeks, and hope you will be able to read about it here, on this very blog :)  

The last of the 32

This post will not make me popular, so let me say it from the start: it is about football teams and not countries. The best thing for these teams qualifying is that people can raise their flag and sing their anthem, because in terms of football quality, none will add anything to the tournament.
I have been watching many of these last play-off matches with disappointment, not just at the lack of quality, but also of the fact that in a 32-team World Cup this is a confirmation that there are really too many mediocre sides.
Honduras-Australia: yes the pitch was bad, but frankly that is just a useful excuse for a disciplined match from the Australians and a poor performance by the Hondurans. Will any of these sides contend for the World Cup title? Unlikely. Will they raise any eyebrows in the tournament? Even more unlikely.
Peru is likely to qualify, and being fifth in such a contested qualification as the South American one is always an achievement. That said, I am sure Peru will not raise any eyebrows either. They are from the hard and defensive side of South America, and is unlikely to win many friends, or add anything to the beautiful game.
In Europe we have three of four qualified teams: Switzerland, Croatia and Sweden. Of these, only Croatia, with its talented midfield and young players is one that we will want to see in the World Cup. Granted, the Swiss are a quality but too defensive side, while Sweden has to be credited for eliminating Italy from the World Cup, but little else.
The first World Cup since 1958 without Italy....
Of course they do not deserve to be there if they don´t qualify, but one has to wonder if the distribution of the groups is good enough: Poland won one group, Iceland another, and with all due respect for them, Italy is better than either of these sides, or Denmark and Ireland for that sake.
A World Cup without Italy will simply not be the same.
That brings me to Denmark and Ireland: of course as a Dane I support Denmark, but as a fan I have to face the truth that Denmark will add anything to the tournament, except, as with the Irish, to the beer sales in Russia.

Africa only has 5 spots in the World Cup, and is plausibly the only continent that deserves more, preferably instead of Europe (give the four play-off places in Europe to Africa!!!!!!): Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Nigeria and Senegal will all be exciting to watch in Russia, but countries like Ghana, Cote d'Ivoire, Zambia, Burkina Faso, Algeria.... Will all be sorely missed, and would have made the World Cup much more exciting than the four European teams that have qualified.

The World Cup in Qatar will have 48 teams. More for Africa, yes, but also more pretty mediocre sides, all to the excitement of mass nationalism (the football World Cup and the Olympics are the only good reason for countries to exist at all).
Expect a World Cup in Qatar with a lot of 0-0´s and second-rate matches.

Ronaldo to Brazil

In a previous post I asked who I would rather see walking down Copacabana: a Portuguese or a Swede? This was partly because I was afraid of asking whether Ronaldo or Ibrahimovic would be best in te World Cup.

I am not afraid of comparing any more. While it will be a pity that Ibrahimovic (who scored two goals tonight), it would be a much greater pity to miss Cristiano Ronaldo, who at the moment, together with Frank Ribery, is the best player in the world, far better than the little Argetinean, who is becoming more of a boring soap opera star.

Who would have thought...?

With three goals tonight it was Cristiano Ronaldo who took Portugal to Brazil. Portugal often annoys me me because they become cocky, and lose matches against worse teams. They may do the same in Brazil, but if they keep their head cold and with a magical Ronaldo, Portugal could well conquer the world in their former colony...

Who would you rather see walking on Copacabana?

With Sweden facing Portugal in the World Cup play-offs one thing is certain: a side with great haircuts will be out. And yesterday Portugal took the first round by winning 1-0 on a late goal by Cristiano Ronaldo. After a shaky start Portugal were indeed the better side, but 1-0 is a very narrow victory to go to Sweden with, and it will be a thrilling second match.
I admit that both teams are great sides that surely belong in a World Cup. So I have to use other criteria to decide on who to support. The question is: who would I rather see walking in a bikini on Copacabana? A Portuguese or a Swedish lady...?

Uruguayan superiority

Uruguay is almost certain to be in Brazil next year after having trashed Jordan 0-5 in Amman in the first leg of their play-off match. Next week's match in Montevideo is now just a formality where the Uruguayans will nevertheless be forced to entertain a sold-out stadium, so it seem likely Jordan are up for another beating.
Edison Cavani, who scored a beautiful fifth goal for Uruguay, was only too nice to Jordan when he said that "it looked like it was easy, but it was not" (he even added that "we still have a difficult match ahead of us").
Of course it was easy, because let us face it, Asian football is many light years away from South American football, and there is not a single of the ten South American sides that would not have defeated the fourth best Asian side to make it to the World Cup. That is what makes it so grotesque when some people talk about Asia and Africa deserving to get more spots in the World Cup, mostly instead of Europe, but certainly also instead of South America.
Really? That would mean that number four in Asia, Jordan, would have qualified, but we would have missed Uruguay!?
Any right-minded football fan (even Jordanian football fans) have to agree that the World Cup would only be weaker and more boring with teams like Jordan instead of Uruguay, and the humongous difference in quality between the sides was only much too obvious today.
I am not saying it will always be like that. Perhaps one day number four in Asia will be as good as number five (or six if we count Brazil) in South America. But frankly, I do not believe I will see this happen for many decades!
Congratulations to Uruguay! Cannot wait to see them in Brazil! (let us not forget what happened last time Uruguay played a World Cup in Brazil....).

Wunderbare Deutschland!

After their first match against Australia, Germany impressed. In the play-off match today I was expecting that the English, who have not impressed, would be inspired by their Italian coach to play cynically and defensively to win a narrow victory against the young German side.

However, how delighted am I to have been wrong!

This is surely one of the most exciting German teams ever, and they were far superior to the English, besides being entertaining and cold-blooded at the most important moments. No matter that England had a clear goal disallowed (this was clearly the most appalling refereeing decision of the tournament, and revives what I have been saying for ages: technology or goal-referees), Germany was by far, by far, the best team. In particular the youngsters Mesut Özil and Thomas Müller were spectacular (Müller scored twice) and augur very well for the German future, but also for the match against either Argentina or Mexico.

England... Another huge disappointment. I was also expecting them to do better after their excellent qualification campaign, but they have played awfully, and this defeat just underlines it by being the largest English defeat in a World Cup, and the largest defeat to the German arch-rivals. The speculations about why it is like this, but perhaps the simplest explanation simply is that England are not that good; during this World Cup they have been mediocre to say the least, and they are standing in front of a massive renewal of their team.

But congratulations to the wonderful German team and to their great fans!!!! Cheers!

The best African team

I am an unapologetic fan of the Black Stars and I wish I had been in Accra for the post-match celebrations! Instead I was in a pub in Copenhagen, but still delighted at the Ghanaian victory after extra time.
I have for ages been saying on this blog that Ghana is the best African football nation, and now they are among the top eight in the world, something I was nevertheless not expecting: I thought USA had shown stronger fighting spirit and that the Americans would ultimately prevail against Ghana's inefficiency and personal mistakes. But I could not have been more wrong: Ghana's young players have learned to pace themselves in such a tournament from their already strong experience in Africa's Cup and diverse youth world cups (and they are u-21 world champions, let us not forget!), and play with the at-times necessary cynicism. Even when USA put pressure on the Ghanaians, these did not lose their heads, and even better, they punished the US mistakes that I was expecting the Ghanaians to make.
Playing like this Ghana could go all the way, but it will certainly not be easy in a quarterfinal against a Uruguay side that is also extraordinary in pacing their game, experience, and some extraordinary strikers!
In the meantime, congratulations Ghana!

The last-16 and predictions

The World Cup has passed the initial group stages and there are 16 teams left for the following play-off matches:

• 26/6: Uruguay-South Corea
• 26/6: USA-Ghana
• 27/6: Germany-England
• 27/6: Argentina-Mexico
• 28/6: Netherlands-Slovakia
• 28/6: Brazil-Chile
• 29/6: Paraguay-Japan
• 29/6: Portugal-Spain

It is a wonderfully diverse group of teams, with 5 South American sides, two from North America, two Asian, six European (who will all be facing one another...) and disappointingly only one team from Africa, Ghana, who will have all the support of Africa and from most of the world for their match against the USA.

My tips are the following:

I believe that Uruguay, who has been strong and disciplined, will defeat a Corean side that has not been convicing, although they have been well-organised. Still, I believe Uruguay are by far the better team.

I support Ghana, but their poor striking force will be their doom against a strong USA side, where Landon Donovan has been the saviour. USA will make it to the quarterfinals.

Germany-England will be a repeat of one of the most classic matches of international football, and the match will be another drama to go over to history. That said, neither team is as brilliant as their history, but I believe that a slightly more cynical England side will win against a German team that I would nevertheless much rather see through.

Argentina has been great, and I believe that they will carry the day against Mexico, although as in 2006, it will not be easy, and likely be a close match where the Mexicans will be their usual dirty.

The Netherlands should be in the quarterfinals, and I see them as the greatest favourites in the last-16 against Slovakia, although the Slovakians showed that they should not be underestimated!

Chile and Brazil will be a great South American encounter, but Brazil will surely win. Chile are charming and offensive, but as inefficient up front as a team full of grandmothers, and with so many mistakes in defense that Brazil will surely win.

Paraguay-Japan is sure to be an exciting and close match, but an organised Japan team, with some extraordinary and quick players, should carry the day against an organised but at times inefficient Paraguayan side.

Portugal-Spain is, with England-Germany, to be one of the most exciting matches of the tournament. Spain is by far the better side than the Portuguese, but the latter will be very excited for this match. I believe the sensation will be there, and Portugal will win a close match, perhaps after extra time and penalties.

Thus, my predictions for the quarterfinals are these:

• Uruguay-USA
• England-Argentina
• Netherlands-Brazil
• Japan-Portugal