The last-32

For the first time in World Cup history, we have 32 teams (too many!) in the knock-out round. So, the 32 teams are paired as follows: 

• Canada-South Africa: one of the surprise sides against one of the hosts. Both teams have for the first time ever progressed from the group stages. Canada are probably favourites but the South Africans have shown they must not be underestimated.
• Brazil-Japan: The five time world champions against up and coming Japan, who struggled to get a result against Sweden. Many people seem to think that Japan can make it, but I put my bet on Ancelotti’s Brazil.
• Germany-Paraguay: Thinking of this match makes me fall asleep. Paraguay only know how to defend; they never try to win a match. Germany always wins, even without trying.
• Netherlands-Morocco: this is the match to watch in the last-32. Morocco are strong, experienced and ambitious, as are the Dutch, who have been playing some great football. I will surely support the European side against the side that did not win the Africa Cup of Nations.
• France-Sweden: In my view France have been the best team in the tournament and they should hopefully walk over the Scandinavian side.
• Mexico-Ecuador: Mexico has only once defeated a CONMEBOL country in a World Cup: Ecuador in 2002. I think they will repeat the victory at home, in front of a passionate crowd, against an Ecuador side that only started playing with their potential when they defeated Germany.
• England-DR Congo: Most people will be cheering for the Congolese, but I hope England wins as I prefer to see the strong British side in a knockout match against a quality opponent.
• Côte d’Ivoire-Norway: two strong sides but with weaknesses, so this should also be one of the few interesting matches in the last-32. Very difficult to predict and both teams deserve to go through.
• Belgium-Senegal: The Belgians only woke up in their last group match, defeating New Zealand 5-1 to win the group. But they have not impressed. Senegal in the meantime lost two good matches in a difficult group, only to crush Iraq in their last group match. I think the Senegalese have the edge, but the Belgians are always unpredictable and have great players.
• USA- Bosnia Hercegovina: Pochettino’s USA were set to go through on maximum points but lost their last group match to Turkey. They still won the group, and I think Pochettino has paced his side to the knockout stages. So I do not give the Bosnians much of a chance.
• Spain-Austria: Spain has not been impressive, but they remain favourites and hard to see that they would not win this match.
• Switzerland-Algeria: Also a match that will not attract many neutral fans. Switzerland probably has the edge against an Algerian side that are not as strong as before.
• Portugal-Croatia: two top level European side that match each other well, so this will be a great match. Croatia has gone through with experience and solidity, while Portugal has not impressed. But both teams can defeat anyone in the world on a good day, and both will be great to see in the last-16.
• Australia-Egypt: Australia make me yawn, and will hope Egypt goes through because of the great Mo Salah.
• Argentina-Cape Verde: The little African nation are surely the darlings of the tournament and will have the support of most of the world. Not me. I will supporting the defending champions, but also have a soft spot for Cape Verde, so I mainly hope it will be good and fair match.
• Colombia-Ghana: May the best team win.

Stop watching and celebrating

I am not naive about football. It is moved by money, by interests, and referees and players can be bought. Declans Hill’s great book, “The Fix”, widely documents a history of match fixing going back to the 1930s to the early 2000s. 

I cannot comment on the possibility of corruption in this World Cup, but contrary to popular belief there is one thing I am certain about: FIFA has not fixed the tournament for a particular team to win. All FIFA cares about is money, and that money is the same whoever wins; in fact, surprises by “smaller” nations is probably even better for FIFA than the usual teams winning, as it brings in more interest from people who may not have watched. If any country should have an advantage in the tournament, it is the home teams, where the bulk of money is being earned during the tournament, but nobody has yet accused Mexico, Canada or USA of being future World Champions. And nobody mentions the favorable referee decisions for “smaller” countries as proof; instead if your team wins it is because they were good, if they lose, it is the referee’s and FIFAs fault. 

Nothing is ever your own fault because you are perfect, your country is perfect and your football team is perfect.

That is the pure true ugly nationalism of football fans.

In the meantime many matches of teams had some very questionable situations that could suspiciously fall into the categories that Declan Hill documented; players from sides that have less attention make strange mistakes and drops in certain core situations. 

I have often criticized FIFA. I am no romantic about it. But you are a fool if you think the entire tournament is fixed.

If not, why the fuck are you watching? Or even celebrating?

Uruguay's failure

A manager is a leader; he or she is expected to set direction, objectives, communicate it well, and coordinate and manage a team so as to achieve the objectives. Respect is not automatic; a good leader earns it. It is not easy; I could and will never do it, as one of the best qualities of a leader is to identify the skills and personality of each of his or her team members, and distribute the tasks and motivate them accordingly.

Marcelo Bielsa is not a good manager. He may be a great football thinker; perhaps one of the greatest, but his great tactical vision of the game is overshadowed by his lack of understanding of how to manage a team of people. In my view Bielsa failed in 2010 as Chile manager, and in 2026 he failed as Uruguay manager.

Granted that Bielsa has in an overtly emotional tone admitted to this failure, but it was a tragedy foretold when players announced their dissatisfaction with the Argentinean manager, who already made controversial choices, without listening to anyone but himself (perhaps the worst characteristic of an already bad leader is not to listen).

One of the more controversial choices was putting the veteran Fernando Muslera on goal. He cost goals, most notably Alex Baena's poor shot against Spain, that ended up giving Spain the victory and eliminating Uruguay from the World Cup. But this was not the only mistake by the manager who acts emotionally, but fails to see players as more than his chess pieces on a football pitch.

Not getting rid of Bielsa before the tournament was the biggest failure of the Uruguayan football federation. Perhaps hiring Bielsa was an attempt to make Uruguayan football look forward and not backwards; but that was not needed! Oscar Washington Tabarez, el Maestro, had already given Uruguayan football a direction for the modern age! Uruguay will never be World Champion again, but they have excellent players, history, and a solid and proud football identity. Bielsa attempted to disrupt that and failed miserably.

Time for Uruguay to go home, lick their wounds, forget about Bielsa and return to their football identity. 

The best team (so far): France

So far in the World Cup we have seen some great teams, some good teams, and some very bad teams. Today we saw a good team, Norway, play against a great team: France.

Granted, Norway did not play their two stars, Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard, but the team is good (and those two players bring them a level up), and it was not bound to be easy for France as the sides clashed for the first spot in Group I.

France were extraordinary in the first half hour, and it was enough to close off the match: three goals by the 2025 Balon d'Or winner, Ousmane Dembele in the first half an hour, was enough to give the French a comfortable lead that could have been more had it not been for goalkeeper Egil Selvik and the Glasgow Rangers' striker Thelo Aasgaard's Norwegian goal.

Ousmane Dembele has scored four goals in the tournament. While attention always seems to focus on Kylian Mbappe, there is no doubt to me who carried the French side; besides his goals, Dembele runs, fights and has the vision to push an already extraordinary side forward.

In the second half France pulled back as Norway vainly pressed forward (and the Scandinavians even missed a penalty kick). The French were nevertheless not done, and in the dying seconds the young PSG player Desire Doué scored his first World Cup goal (having already scored two in the 2025 Champions league final), and I am not afraid to say that it will probably not be his last.

France has in my view stepped into the limelight as favourites to win the title. It is hard to see that anyone can defeat them, but of course, anything can happen as we move into the knock-out stages.

But watch out for the Fantastic Frenchmen! 

Norway ends second in the group and will be facing Cote d'Ivoire in what will also be a great match. 

Record and surprise in Group A

Tournaments are often notably hard to predict, and Group A in this World Cup was notably difficult. After the opening match between Mexico and South Africa it was impossible to predict the strength of those two sides: Mexico won 2-0 against a very poor South Africa, and the home side only started showing their true strength when they defeated South Corea 1-0. Today Mexico were fantastic: 3-0 over a Czechia side that only played decent football during the first half hour, on goals by the Alkmaar defender Mateo Chavez, Julian Quiñones and Alvaro Fidalgo. 

Czechia proved to be one of the poorest side in the tournament, but that does not take away the fact that Mexico, for the first time in their World Cup history, won three matches in the group stages and progresses with a score of 6-0. The Mexican side, managed by the experienced Javier Aguirre, have shown that the doubts about the side were baseless, and that they are a side that aims to get far in the tournament. 

Any team that will face Mexico will struggle, not only against a great team, but also with an incredible local support.

We will see who they will play in the next match soon! 

In the meantime, everyone underestimated South Africa (including myself), most notably the South Coreans, whom everyone was expecting to go through on second place after Mexico. All the Asians had to do was tie South Africa. Instead, the South Africans won 0-1 on a goal by Thapelo Maseko, and they take second place in the group (and will be facing Canada next). It is a huge surprise, given how they played in the first match, and the fact that they only managed to tie Czechia (again: perhaps the poorest sides in the tournament). 

South Corea, who looked so good in their first match, and played a good match against Mexico, can only be disappointed as they are now on the verge of being eliminated. They can still hope to go through as one of the best third-placed teams, but with only three points and a score of -1, this would be incredibly lucky indeed!

The best tournament teams do not underestimate anyone, and pace their tournament. Mexico and South Africa perhaps paced themselves after the opening match, but now they are both deservedly celebrating that they are through to the last-32.