Congrats to Paraguay and to Germany

For some time, Germany appeared to be going the same way as Italy; since they won their fourth World cup they have been awful! 

In 2010 and 2014, following their famous 2006 victory, Italy failed to get past the group stages. The same has happened to Germany, who after winning in 2014, failed to get past the group stages in 2018 and 2022. So this is where Germany has improved compared to Italy. 

The Italians have failed to qualify for all World Cups since 2014, while Germany in this World Cup improved markedly from their two previous World Cups in that they moved beyond the group stage and to the last-32. However, today this was the end for Germany, who lost on penalties to a difficult Paraguay side, after a tough 1-1 (Germany's first loss in World Cup penalty contest ever). 

While some may say this is disappointing for Germany, I applaud them for getting out of the group stages and playing a good match against Paraguay; they were the better team but lacked speed and imagination against a South American side that played like they always do: organized, defensive, and counting on corners and free kicks. And with a strong goalkeeper in the San Lorenzo’s Orlando Gill, Paraguay proved too much for the German feeble attacks.... 

Germany are, like Italy, not at the level of former times; the players they produce are nowhere near the level of the players they used to produce and not only lack the skills and speed to defeat a team like Paraguay, but also lack a winning mentality that in the end might have been why they could not win on penalties. Paraguay are surely celebrating and will look forward to play another defensive and organized match in the last-16. 

Congratulations to Paraguay but I will certainly not support them as I do not like how they play.

In the meantime, I congratulate Germany for getting through the group stages and hope they continue improving after having fallen so far from their 2014 pinnacle. 

Brazil-Japan

Japan-Brazil was bound to be an exciting match, but it was more disappointing: the disappointing thing were Japanese side. The Asians have been touted as a potential new world power in football, but were tepid to say the least against the Brazilians, who were the deserved winners. 

Japan started the match defensively; they appeared nervous and were under pressure until after half an hour, when Danilo lost a ball to the Mainz´ player Kaisho Sano, who just rushed towards goal and shot flatly to the right of Alisson. 0-1 for Japan was completely against the match stats, but it was the result at halftime. 

Second half was the same: if anything, Japan pulled back even more, relying on sporadic and lukewarm counterattacks, while Brazil pressed forward. Japan was rather lucky in some situations and finally relief came for all football fans when Casemiro headed the ball into the Japanese goal. If anything, the goal gave Brazil more confidence and Japan more nerves, but despite hitting the post and numerous approaches, Brazil was unable to score until the dying second of the match, when a bad defensive mistake by the Japanese put Arsenal´s Gabriel Martinelli in a free position, and he scored Brazil´s winner via the goalpost. 

Thank football for Brazil being in the next round! They will face the winner of Norway-Cote d’Ivoire. 

In the meantime Japan will not be missed, and confirm the dreadful tournament for Asian sides: of 9 teams, only two (Japan and Australia) qualified for the last-32, and now Japan has gotten (rightfully) eliminated. Next World Cup Asia should lose some qualification spots to Africa.

The last-32

For the first time in World Cup history, we have 32 teams (too many!) in the knock-out round. So, the 32 teams are paired as follows: 

• Canada-South Africa: one of the surprise sides against one of the hosts. Both teams have for the first time ever progressed from the group stages. Canada are probably favourites but the South Africans have shown they must not be underestimated.
• Brazil-Japan: The five time world champions against up and coming Japan, who struggled to get a result against Sweden. Many people seem to think that Japan can make it, but I put my bet on Ancelotti’s Brazil.
• Germany-Paraguay: Thinking of this match makes me fall asleep. Paraguay only know how to defend; they never try to win a match. Germany always wins, even without trying.
• Netherlands-Morocco: this is the match to watch in the last-32. Morocco are strong, experienced and ambitious, as are the Dutch, who have been playing some great football. I will surely support the European side against the side that did not win the Africa Cup of Nations.
• France-Sweden: In my view France have been the best team in the tournament and they should hopefully walk over the Scandinavian side.
• Mexico-Ecuador: Mexico has only once defeated a CONMEBOL country in a World Cup: Ecuador in 2002. I think they will repeat the victory at home, in front of a passionate crowd, against an Ecuador side that only started playing with their potential when they defeated Germany.
• England-DR Congo: Most people will be cheering for the Congolese, but I hope England wins as I prefer to see the strong British side in a knockout match against a quality opponent.
• Côte d’Ivoire-Norway: two strong sides but with weaknesses, so this should also be one of the few interesting matches in the last-32. Very difficult to predict and both teams deserve to go through.
• Belgium-Senegal: The Belgians only woke up in their last group match, defeating New Zealand 5-1 to win the group. But they have not impressed. Senegal in the meantime lost two good matches in a difficult group, only to crush Iraq in their last group match. I think the Senegalese have the edge, but the Belgians are always unpredictable and have great players.
• USA- Bosnia Hercegovina: Pochettino’s USA were set to go through on maximum points but lost their last group match to Turkey. They still won the group, and I think Pochettino has paced his side to the knockout stages. So I do not give the Bosnians much of a chance.
• Spain-Austria: Spain has not been impressive, but they remain favourites and hard to see that they would not win this match.
• Switzerland-Algeria: Also a match that will not attract many neutral fans. Switzerland probably has the edge against an Algerian side that are not as strong as before.
• Portugal-Croatia: two top level European side that match each other well, so this will be a great match. Croatia has gone through with experience and solidity, while Portugal has not impressed. But both teams can defeat anyone in the world on a good day, and both will be great to see in the last-16.
• Australia-Egypt: Australia make me yawn, and will hope Egypt goes through because of the great Mo Salah.
• Argentina-Cape Verde: The little African nation are surely the darlings of the tournament and will have the support of most of the world. Not me. I will supporting the defending champions, but also have a soft spot for Cape Verde, so I mainly hope it will be good and fair match.
• Colombia-Ghana: May the best team win.

Stop watching and celebrating

I am not naive about football. It is moved by money, by interests, and referees and players can be bought. Declans Hill’s great book, “The Fix”, widely documents a history of match fixing going back to the 1930s to the early 2000s. 

I cannot comment on the possibility of corruption in this World Cup, but contrary to popular belief there is one thing I am certain about: FIFA has not fixed the tournament for a particular team to win. All FIFA cares about is money, and that money is the same whoever wins; in fact, surprises by “smaller” nations is probably even better for FIFA than the usual teams winning, as it brings in more interest from people who may not have watched. If any country should have an advantage in the tournament, it is the home teams, where the bulk of money is being earned during the tournament, but nobody has yet accused Mexico, Canada or USA of being future World Champions. And nobody mentions the favorable referee decisions for “smaller” countries as proof; instead if your team wins it is because they were good, if they lose, it is the referee’s and FIFAs fault. 

Nothing is ever your own fault because you are perfect, your country is perfect and your football team is perfect.

That is the pure true ugly nationalism of football fans.

In the meantime many matches of teams had some very questionable situations that could suspiciously fall into the categories that Declan Hill documented; players from sides that have less attention make strange mistakes and drops in certain core situations. 

I have often criticized FIFA. I am no romantic about it. But you are a fool if you think the entire tournament is fixed.

If not, why the fuck are you watching? Or even celebrating?

Uruguay's failure

A manager is a leader; he or she is expected to set direction, objectives, communicate it well, and coordinate and manage a team so as to achieve the objectives. Respect is not automatic; a good leader earns it. It is not easy; I could and will never do it, as one of the best qualities of a leader is to identify the skills and personality of each of his or her team members, and distribute the tasks and motivate them accordingly.

Marcelo Bielsa is not a good manager. He may be a great football thinker; perhaps one of the greatest, but his great tactical vision of the game is overshadowed by his lack of understanding of how to manage a team of people. In my view Bielsa failed in 2010 as Chile manager, and in 2026 he failed as Uruguay manager.

Granted that Bielsa has in an overtly emotional tone admitted to this failure, but it was a tragedy foretold when players announced their dissatisfaction with the Argentinean manager, who already made controversial choices, without listening to anyone but himself (perhaps the worst characteristic of an already bad leader is not to listen).

One of the more controversial choices was putting the veteran Fernando Muslera on goal. He cost goals, most notably Alex Baena's poor shot against Spain, that ended up giving Spain the victory and eliminating Uruguay from the World Cup. But this was not the only mistake by the manager who acts emotionally, but fails to see players as more than his chess pieces on a football pitch.

Not getting rid of Bielsa before the tournament was the biggest failure of the Uruguayan football federation. Perhaps hiring Bielsa was an attempt to make Uruguayan football look forward and not backwards; but that was not needed! Oscar Washington Tabarez, el Maestro, had already given Uruguayan football a direction for the modern age! Uruguay will never be World Champion again, but they have excellent players, history, and a solid and proud football identity. Bielsa attempted to disrupt that and failed miserably.

Time for Uruguay to go home, lick their wounds, forget about Bielsa and return to their football identity.