Things decided in CONCACAF

 El Salvador had no chances to qualify following their recent tie with Jamaica, so in today's qualifier against Costa Rica they had only honour to play for as I went to cheer for them in a lovely sunny afternoon in San Salvador.

Costa Rica did not seem like a team that had a World cup spot to play for, but at the same time their experienced players gave the Salvadoran defense problems, and Costa Rica were leading 1-2 at halftime on goals by Anthony Contreras and Joel Campbell, that most of all exposed Salvadoran defensive mistakes. At the same time Costa Rica let El Salvador play the ball around, but without getting really dangerous, except when Cristian Gil Hurtado was excellently played into scoring position to pass Keylor Navas.

Second half was poor: Costa Rica defended and spent time, while El Salvador continued playing the ball around, but seldomly getting really dangerous.

The victory puts Costa Rica in the top four for CONCACAF, and they may still get third spot if El Salvador manages to take points from Mexico. 

In the meantime the long expected qualification of Canada was confirmed as they trashed Jamaica 4-0 at home (they lost their first match in qualification last week to Costa Rica), and it will be interesting to see if they can continue their regional success at the world stage, 36 years after their previous World Cup in 1986 (from which I have an anecdote for another blog-post).

In the meantime congratulations to the four teams from CONCACAF, and for El Salvador, they have to continue growing, and should have a chance at the next World Cup.

 

 

El Salvador-Canada

Two days ago I was among the Salvadoran fans supporting their team in their last attempts to qualify for the World Cup as they were facing the team of the moment in CONCACAF, Canada. 

Despite the stadium not being full, the passionate fans created a great atmosphere, but in the first fifteen minutes the atmosphere did not help the home team as Canada dominated with a high pressure, and were only prevented from scoring due to a couple of great saves by the FAS goalkeeper Kevin Carabantes. But slowly the Salvadorans worked themselves into the match, and when it reached halftime the score was a deserved 0-0.

Second half started well for El Salvador who was putting more pressure on the Canadians, although they were missing obvious chances. During one excellent attack Bryan Tamacas was taken down in the Canadian area in what I considered a clear penalty (and after seeing it on TV I still consider it a clear penalty where the Canadian defender never touched the ball, but directly took down the man), but the referee, who had a really bad night, did not call the penalty. An awful decision, and in the next minutes Canada's Atiba Hutchinson scored one of the strangest and luckiest goals I have seen (and in fact in the stadium it was hard to see what happened exactly, and I have had to see it a few times on TV): following a cross a struggle between Eric Zavaleta and Hutchinson made the ball jump to the outside part of near post. Hutchinson fell on the goal-line and the ball fell on his back as he lay down, and jumped a strange curve from a very sharp angle into goal. There was some controversy as the linesman had waved the flag for a possible foul, but the referee correctly called the goal.

Respect for Canada, but that was incredibly lucky; it took some of the air out of the Salvadorans who appeared disorganized, while the Canadians now focused on defending and pulling the rhythm out of the match. That said, in the last minutes El Salvador created two big chances, the latter a spectacular shot that was just saved by Milan Borjan in the Canadian goal.

And as often happens when one is pushing forward in the last minutes, Canada struck back on a counterattack to make it 2-0 in the last seconds of the match (just as they had done when defeating the USA 2-0 on Sunday): a very sloppy throw-in by Enrico Dueñas was caught by the Lille striker Jonathan David who rushed towards goal and was ice-cold to score. 

Jonathan David confirms that he is a striker on fire!

The match thus ended in disappointment for El Salvador, who had played a good match, but just hadn't the luck or the referee to pull a tie, which would have been much more deserved. They can still mathematically qualify for the World Cup but it appears extremely unlikely: they need to win every match, while both Panama and Costa Rica must lose all their remaining matches. But both against the USA (1-0 loss), Honduras (0-2 win) and this match the team has shown good qualities, and they should look forward to keep improving.

In the meantime I can say that I saw the strongest team in CONCACAF. Despite the luck Canada are a strong and organised side with excellent players, and they come through three important victories in this round of qualifying (USA, Honduras and El Salvador), remain the only undefeated team, and they are almost sure to qualify to Qatar (they only need one victory in their last three matches).

Congratulations to Canada.

CONCACAF likelihood

Although all teams can still theoretically qualify in the CONCACAF Octagonal for the three direct spots for Qatar 2022, it appears more and more likely who the three teams will be, and who will be out after the matches played yesterday.

Canada remains on first spot and is a likely participant in Qatar after defeating Honduras 0-2 in Tegucigalpa. Honduras in the meantime, with three points only, takes the last spot among the eight teams. USA trails Canada by one point after defeating El Salvador 1-0 in Columbus, Ohio, in a match that proved more difficult than expected for the USA. El Salvador is on seventh spot with only 6 points, but they played well, and if they start scoring more goals they would be more competitive.

Mexico has suffered, and suffered yesterday against Jamaica as they were down 1-0 with only 6 minutes to go, but two quick goals gave them a victory, and they remain on third spot, only two points behind Canada. 

That is who I think will qualify in CONCACAF: Canada, USA and Mexico. The order may change a bit, specially when USA and Canada face one another this weekend.

The fourth spot (which gives a play-off) is Panamá's right now, with 14 points. But after Costa Rica defeated them 1-0 yesterday, Costa Rica creeps up to 12 points, and may still take the spot from the Panameños. Both teams have some difficult matches ahead for them, but be sure that both will fight hard for the play-off spot!

Canada Number 1 (!)

"Canada number 1" is something I have never said before, but it is the truth in the CONCACAF region´s qualifiers, where the top three qualify directly for Qatar, while the fourth gest a play-off. Although everyone who has been watching Canada lately knows that the team, captained by the phenomenal Alphonse Davies from Bayern Munich, is to be reckoned with, their rise culminated yesterday with a 2-1 victory over Mexico, the team that has historically always dominated CONCACAF. Canada already tied 1-1 in Mexico City, and recent victories over Costa Rica and Panama has put them on top, and we should all be looking forward to a clash between USA and Canada, going for first spot. 

Mexico, traditionally dominant in CONCACAF has fallen to third place after their two defeats to USA and Canada respectively, with 14 points, alongside Panama on fourth spot, also with 14 points. That said, it appears that the top four in CONCACAF is taking shape: after defeating El Salvador 2-1, Panama and Mexico are five points clear of Costa Rica on fifth place. Panama, coached by the Spanish-Dane Thomas Christiansen, are looking for their second World Cup in a row, and have already played some epic matches to defeat the USA, and coming from behind to defeat both Honduras and El Salvador. 

My prediction is that the CONCACAF will end as its stands, with Mexico, USA and Canada qualifying, and Panama going to the play-offs. 

 In the meantime, I should say something about El Salvador, because it is the country in which I am currently residing. El Salvador´s manager Hugo Perez is being widely criticised for the lack of results and from some quarters also for his selection of some players who were not born and bred in the country, but are rather a product of the country´s huge diaspora, mainly in the USA. The team is relatively young, and I think Mr. Perez has a long-term plan, to build up a base of young foreign-based players who are now gaining experience and could compete for the 2026 World Cup. Right now, the team is clearly not competitive at the highest levels; even when they went ahead early against Panama they lacked a high pressure and controlling the match against a much more experiences and tactically savvy Panamanian side. The problem appears a lack of patience with the lack of quick results and what I consider a strange lack of support when things are not going well: last week´s home match against Jamaica was not sold out in San Salvador even though it was a crucial match for a team that could still qualify for the World Cup. 

These are the matches where the stadium should be sold out. Instead, with lacklustre support, El Salvador and Jamaica tied 1-1, and with the defeat to Panama, El Salvador are likely out of the contest. Good luck, and hope they can get more support next time.