Qualified and not qualified

We are in the last stages of the World Cup qualifiers. 

In Europe two decisive playoff matches saw Portugal and Poland qualify by defeating North Macedonia and Sweden respectively; both were 2-0 home victories. The Macedonians were never really close to pulling another surprise against the Portuguese, while the Swedes play without fantasy or passion, and will not really be missed in Qatar. One team remains to qualify: Wales will face the winner of Scotland-Ukraine, which was postponed due to the war in Ukraine.

In South America there was little to play for for everyone but Peru and Colombia. A victory for Peru against Paraguay would put them in the play-off match, while Colombia had to defeat Venezuela and hope that Peru did not win. Both Peru and Colombia won, but it was not enough for Colombia, who will be missed in Qatar (I am personally very sad not to see them qualify), but they only have themselves to blame for missing another World Cup (the last they missed was 2010). Peru in the meantime is going into a play-off match in June against Australia or the United Arab Emirates. It seems it will be Australia, and against them I think Peru's chances will be 50-50 of making it to their second World Cup in a row.

In Africa there was enormous excitement as the second legs of the playoffs took place with some upsets. Firstly, Nigeria will miss their first World Cup since 2006 when they only managed a 1-1 at home to Ghana, who I am personally happy to see back in the World Cup after they missed Russia 2018! 

In a near-repeat of the Africa Cup of Nations final Senegal eliminated Egypt after penalty kicks, following a 1-0 victory that had equalized Egypt's 1-0 victory in Cairo. The Senegalese fully deserved the victory as they were the ones looking for it, rather than the defensive Egyptians. That said, the victory was marred by the fans, who abused laser-lights at the Egyptian players, making the match appear like a rave party.

The other big upset was Cameroun, who defeated Algeria 1-2 in Algeria after having lost 0-1 at home. The match had to go into extra time, and after Ahmed Touba scoring an equalizer for Algeria in the 118th minute, Cameroun seemed eliminated, but a goal by Karl Toko Ekambi in the last kick of the match (124th minute!) put Cameroun in Qatar in what was surely a devastating blow for the talented Algerians. At the same time it will be great to see Cameroun back in a World Cup after the missed out on Russia 2018. 

Tunisia and Morocco will make up the rest if African contingent to Qatar.

Only three teams remain to qualify, and it will (likely) be decided among these: Wales, Scotland, Ukraine, Peru, Australia, United Arab Emirates, New Zealand and Costa Rica.

What is VAR for anyway?

In South America VAR is useless. I remember a Copa Libertadores match when they spent 10 minutes reviewing a goal to find an extremely thin offside in a largely irrelevant situation. And today in the qualifier between Uruguay and Peru we saw what appeared to be a goal that had crossed the line not reviewed by VAR.

Aren't these the exact situations when VAR should be used!?!?

Mind you, I support Colombia (who finally scored seven games later, to win 3-0 against Bolivia), and Uruguay's 1-0 victory over Peru means that Colombia can still qualify with one match left (they have to defeat Venezuela and hope that Peru does not defeat Paraguay). However, if the referee and VAR had not conspired, Peru would have had the chance for direct World Cup qualification instead of a playoff, and that is simply unfair for Peru!

Disgraceful refereeing, but I could be wrong. Judge yourself:

Italian tragedy

Italy will be the most missed team in the World Cup, and that is a tragedy for football fans all over. The Italy that won the Euro this year were the best Italian side, but were defeated today in the World Cup playoffs against North Macedonia in a match where the Macedonians played their only chance: defending and hoping for the counterattack, which they got in the 92nd minute and gave Aleksandar Trajkovski the winning goal for the away side.

Despite dominating the Italians never seemed able to fight their way through, so the Macedonians have every reason to be proud about this huge upset. That said, they are certainly not qualified as they will now face Portugal, who defeated Turkey 3-1 to advance to the playoff final.

If the Macedonians advance to Qatar they will certainly deserve it!

Two World Cups in a row without Italy. Unheard of for a team that only had not qualified in 1958 (in 1930 they did not enter).

Suspend Russia

Football is not important, but football can take a stand, and that is what Poland's football players have taken in terms of deciding to boycott their World Cup qualifier against Russia in March. In case Russia is awarded the match, they will face Sweden or the Czech Republic, and Sweden have already also announced that they would not face Russia either.

Potentially, this could qualify Russia directly to the World Cup. And why is that? It is because FIFA has taken no stand as to what to do, and knowing FIFA's lack of courage in these situations, one has to assume that Russia is on its way to Qatar until a clear stand is taken.

Some would argue that football and politics should not be mixed and that the Russian players and fans should not be punished for what is happening. 

Russian players and fans are great; I can say it from experience, from the fantastic time and people I met in Russia in 2018 during the World Cup. But football and politics are intrinsically linked, because football is part of wider society, and cannot be separated from its problems. Russia's government must be isolated for its blatant and aggressive invasion of Ukraine, and although football is just a small thing, Russia must be suspended.

El Salvador-Canada

Two days ago I was among the Salvadoran fans supporting their team in their last attempts to qualify for the World Cup as they were facing the team of the moment in CONCACAF, Canada. 

Despite the stadium not being full, the passionate fans created a great atmosphere, but in the first fifteen minutes the atmosphere did not help the home team as Canada dominated with a high pressure, and were only prevented from scoring due to a couple of great saves by the FAS goalkeeper Kevin Carabantes. But slowly the Salvadorans worked themselves into the match, and when it reached halftime the score was a deserved 0-0.

Second half started well for El Salvador who was putting more pressure on the Canadians, although they were missing obvious chances. During one excellent attack Bryan Tamacas was taken down in the Canadian area in what I considered a clear penalty (and after seeing it on TV I still consider it a clear penalty where the Canadian defender never touched the ball, but directly took down the man), but the referee, who had a really bad night, did not call the penalty. An awful decision, and in the next minutes Canada's Atiba Hutchinson scored one of the strangest and luckiest goals I have seen (and in fact in the stadium it was hard to see what happened exactly, and I have had to see it a few times on TV): following a cross a struggle between Eric Zavaleta and Hutchinson made the ball jump to the outside part of near post. Hutchinson fell on the goal-line and the ball fell on his back as he lay down, and jumped a strange curve from a very sharp angle into goal. There was some controversy as the linesman had waved the flag for a possible foul, but the referee correctly called the goal.

Respect for Canada, but that was incredibly lucky; it took some of the air out of the Salvadorans who appeared disorganized, while the Canadians now focused on defending and pulling the rhythm out of the match. That said, in the last minutes El Salvador created two big chances, the latter a spectacular shot that was just saved by Milan Borjan in the Canadian goal.

And as often happens when one is pushing forward in the last minutes, Canada struck back on a counterattack to make it 2-0 in the last seconds of the match (just as they had done when defeating the USA 2-0 on Sunday): a very sloppy throw-in by Enrico Dueñas was caught by the Lille striker Jonathan David who rushed towards goal and was ice-cold to score. 

Jonathan David confirms that he is a striker on fire!

The match thus ended in disappointment for El Salvador, who had played a good match, but just hadn't the luck or the referee to pull a tie, which would have been much more deserved. They can still mathematically qualify for the World Cup but it appears extremely unlikely: they need to win every match, while both Panama and Costa Rica must lose all their remaining matches. But both against the USA (1-0 loss), Honduras (0-2 win) and this match the team has shown good qualities, and they should look forward to keep improving.

In the meantime I can say that I saw the strongest team in CONCACAF. Despite the luck Canada are a strong and organised side with excellent players, and they come through three important victories in this round of qualifying (USA, Honduras and El Salvador), remain the only undefeated team, and they are almost sure to qualify to Qatar (they only need one victory in their last three matches).

Congratulations to Canada.

Colombia on the brink of elimination

 Colombia has had a weak World Cup qualification. After losing 6-1 to Ecuador, the new manager Reinaldo Rueda has struggled to make Colombia score goals, and before the match against Peru, Colombia had not scored a goal for five qualifiers in a row. So Colombia was under pressure at home against Peru, a team that has steadily improved and have chances of qualifying as well.

Under pressure to score Colombia started with an offensive side that counted the veterans Falcao, James and Juan Cuadrado, alongside Rafael Santos Borre and Luis Diaz. Indeed Colombia did all they had to do, except to score a goal: they attacked throughout the match, had possession and chances, but the ball simply refused to go in.

And we all know what happens in football. A defensive Peru scored on their only attempt on goal in the 85th minute when Edison Flores scored at the near post on a shot that David Ospina should have saved (and one may wonder if it was wise to let him play with an apparent injury; the only time he touched the ball in the match was when he had to pick it out of the goal).

Peru implausibly won, and came up on 4th position, ahead of Uruguay on fifth, while Colombia now lingers dangerously on 6th spot. Colombia have three matches left: Argentina (who qualified after their 1-2 away win to Chile), Bolivia and Venezuela, and have to start scoring goals if they are to retain hope of going to Qatar.

CONCACAF likelihood

Although all teams can still theoretically qualify in the CONCACAF Octagonal for the three direct spots for Qatar 2022, it appears more and more likely who the three teams will be, and who will be out after the matches played yesterday.

Canada remains on first spot and is a likely participant in Qatar after defeating Honduras 0-2 in Tegucigalpa. Honduras in the meantime, with three points only, takes the last spot among the eight teams. USA trails Canada by one point after defeating El Salvador 1-0 in Columbus, Ohio, in a match that proved more difficult than expected for the USA. El Salvador is on seventh spot with only 6 points, but they played well, and if they start scoring more goals they would be more competitive.

Mexico has suffered, and suffered yesterday against Jamaica as they were down 1-0 with only 6 minutes to go, but two quick goals gave them a victory, and they remain on third spot, only two points behind Canada. 

That is who I think will qualify in CONCACAF: Canada, USA and Mexico. The order may change a bit, specially when USA and Canada face one another this weekend.

The fourth spot (which gives a play-off) is Panamá's right now, with 14 points. But after Costa Rica defeated them 1-0 yesterday, Costa Rica creeps up to 12 points, and may still take the spot from the Panameños. Both teams have some difficult matches ahead for them, but be sure that both will fight hard for the play-off spot!

Canada Number 1 (!)

"Canada number 1" is something I have never said before, but it is the truth in the CONCACAF region´s qualifiers, where the top three qualify directly for Qatar, while the fourth gest a play-off. Although everyone who has been watching Canada lately knows that the team, captained by the phenomenal Alphonse Davies from Bayern Munich, is to be reckoned with, their rise culminated yesterday with a 2-1 victory over Mexico, the team that has historically always dominated CONCACAF. Canada already tied 1-1 in Mexico City, and recent victories over Costa Rica and Panama has put them on top, and we should all be looking forward to a clash between USA and Canada, going for first spot. 

Mexico, traditionally dominant in CONCACAF has fallen to third place after their two defeats to USA and Canada respectively, with 14 points, alongside Panama on fourth spot, also with 14 points. That said, it appears that the top four in CONCACAF is taking shape: after defeating El Salvador 2-1, Panama and Mexico are five points clear of Costa Rica on fifth place. Panama, coached by the Spanish-Dane Thomas Christiansen, are looking for their second World Cup in a row, and have already played some epic matches to defeat the USA, and coming from behind to defeat both Honduras and El Salvador. 

My prediction is that the CONCACAF will end as its stands, with Mexico, USA and Canada qualifying, and Panama going to the play-offs. 

 In the meantime, I should say something about El Salvador, because it is the country in which I am currently residing. El Salvador´s manager Hugo Perez is being widely criticised for the lack of results and from some quarters also for his selection of some players who were not born and bred in the country, but are rather a product of the country´s huge diaspora, mainly in the USA. The team is relatively young, and I think Mr. Perez has a long-term plan, to build up a base of young foreign-based players who are now gaining experience and could compete for the 2026 World Cup. Right now, the team is clearly not competitive at the highest levels; even when they went ahead early against Panama they lacked a high pressure and controlling the match against a much more experiences and tactically savvy Panamanian side. The problem appears a lack of patience with the lack of quick results and what I consider a strange lack of support when things are not going well: last week´s home match against Jamaica was not sold out in San Salvador even though it was a crucial match for a team that could still qualify for the World Cup. 

These are the matches where the stadium should be sold out. Instead, with lacklustre support, El Salvador and Jamaica tied 1-1, and with the defeat to Panama, El Salvador are likely out of the contest. Good luck, and hope they can get more support next time.

Heading for Qatar

 I must admit that I have been watching a lot of football the last few days; World Cup qualifiers from Europe, South America, Concacaf, and even watched good ole’ Liberia lose 0-2 to Nigeria, who goes on to win the group and is in the run for a World Cup spot.

In Europe all Group winners have been decided, with the two big surprises being Switzerland and Serbia. They Serbians did the unexpected by winning 1-2 in Lisbon to take first spot in the group ahead of Portugal, who were even 1-0 ahead and would have won the group with a tie. The other surprise were Switzerland, who did what they had to do by defeating Bulgaria 4-0, as Italy’s European champions were unable to get past 0-0 against Northern Ireland. Four years ago Italy also missed out on the World Cup in the play-offs, and although I think they will make it, the play-offs will be nerve wrecking: twelve teams will fight for three World Cup spots, and some of the teams besides Italy and Portugal include Russia, Poland, Wales, Sweden and Scotland.

The European sides going straight to Qatar from Europe are:

• Group A: Serbia
• Group B: Spain
• Group C: Switzerland 
• Group D: France 
• Group E: Belgium 
• Group F: Denmark
• Group G: Netherlands
• Group H: Croatia
• Group I: England
• Group J: Germany

In the meantime in South America Brazil and Argentina tied 0-0; Brazil has qualified while Argentina are on the verge of qualifying. Ecuador appears a relatively solid third after a strong 0-2 away win in Chile, while there is a bitter fight for he next two spots. Colombia, after yet another 0-0 against Paraguay is on fourth place with 17 points, with only two points down to Bolivia on 8th place. Bolivia defeated Uruguay 3-0 in La Paz, and are thus still playing for a place in Qatar. The only team that has no option of qualifying is Venezuela, while all other teams are still in the contest with just four matches left. Peru is currently in fifth place, with 17 points, following a win over Venezuela, and will face Colombia in the next match.

Await some epic matches in South America!