Thursday, January 30, 2025

The confusing Champions League

The money making machine of the Champions League is over with its new format, with eight teams going through directly to the knock-out, and a further 16 teams going through to the play-off knockout. It did not seem to matter to most teams; the objective was not to end among the bottom twelve where there were not really many surprises.

Surprises perhaps in the top eight: Liverpool, Barcelona, Arsenal, Inter, Bayer Leverkusen and Atletico Madrid were accompanied by Aston Villa and Lille. The latter was the best French side, but with favourites PSG, Brest and Monaco all going through to the play-offs. Other big teams made it through to the play-offs too: Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, Juventus, Benfica, Real Madrid.... In my view the problem is that none of the teams really cared that they did not end in the top-8, but that they were able to "relax" some matches without never really putting in doubt that they would progress. And two matches more? They are confident enough to win and make more money on it....

The only big team that really seemed to struggle was crisis-hit Manchester City, who until the last match could have been eliminated but won 3-1 over Club Brugge (who also made it through), and appear likely to be a hard nut to crack for anyone in the play-offs (and more money because it could be a big match!).

The draw for the play-offs will be on Friday.

Sunday, January 26, 2025

Debacle

I was almost going to watch Barcelona-Valencia, but decided to do something else as expectations on Valencia doing anything are very low. And thankfully I did not watch a debacle where a team of washed-out veterans and youth players lost 7-1 to FC Barcelona.

Valencia is on its way to be relegated, being second to last, only ahead of hapless Valladolid. Perhaps it is time for Valencia to be relegated following the many years of Telenovela ownershipo by Peter Lim, and ever increasing debt, and all the most talented players being sold (one of the products of Valencia's youth academy, Ferran Torres, scored for Barcelona today). It has been painful to be a Valencia fan during Lim's ownership, and all the club needs is some stability, and perhaps this will be found in Segunda Division...

Friday, January 24, 2025

The worst Manchester United side ever

 It is not the fans, not a journalist or pundit who recently called the current Manchester United side "maybe in the history of Manchester United". No, the one who said it was none other than the current Manchester United manager Ruben Amorim who said it following another Manchester United defeat in the Premier League, 1-3 at home to Brighton.

This is quite an incredible remark from a manager who only joined the side in November 2024, but who has not had the success that was hoped for (or expected). It was also a strange change for Mr. Amorim, who came from success in Sporting Lisbon, and joined a club who was already in an enormous crisis and it did indeed look that Mr. Amorim had to do something superhuman to change what was happening. 

And now it looks that Amorim has realised the truth: that the crisis in Manchester United is deep, very deep, and that it is about the entire club, not just the manager. 

Does his comment help?

I do not think it is wrong to say what many fans and journalists are already saying, and surely many in Manchester United thinking, specially after another loss, and it is a wake-up call to a group of still-highly paid footballers who are clearly not delivering on the pitch. Manchester United looks less as a team than a group of offended rich kids.

Mr. Amorim may be a great manager; at least he speaks truth, but what he will do about it, remains to be seen.

Tuesday, January 14, 2025

The clasico in the desert

 The Spanish Super Cup final between FC Barcelona and Real Madrid took place in the country that will host the 2034 World Cup, Saudi Arabia, and thus, everyone should stop complaining, because Saudi Arabia is already host to a lot of sports-events, whether we like it or not.

Money talks, specially as these two sides faced one another, and the confrontation happened in the midst of the controversy of Dani Olmo being allowed to play for Barcelona despite some apparently creative financial juggling from FC Barcelona that many Spanish clubs are complaining about. That said, we have always known that there are other rules for these two sides who, despite all the controversy, are always good for some entertainment.

And the final was entertaining indeed. Barcelona was far far superior, but Real Madrid had Kylian Mbappe, who with his speed and quality was basically the only threat that Real Madrid had, and he proved it early on when he brought Real Madrid ahead. But that was virtually everything Real Madrid had to offer, and in particular defenders like Lucas Vasquez, Aurelien Tchouameni and Ferland Mendy were played around with by Barcelona's quick and excellent technicians. Young Lamine Yamal equalized for Barcelona with a brilliant strike, while Robert Lewandoski scored on a penalty committed by another poor Real Madrid player Eduardo Camavinga. By halftime the score was 4-1 for Barcelona with additional goals by Raphinha and Alejandro Balde, and when Raphinha made it 5-1 early in the second half against a Real Madrid side where Ancelotti had decided to make no changes, one thought that this could be a historical victory for Barcelona.

However, Mbappe's speed gave Real Madrid a bit of breathing space as he was taken down by the substitute Polish Barcelona goalkeeper, Wojciech Szczesny, who was correctly shown a red card (the referee did forgive red cards for Vinicius Jr. and Camavinga nevertheless), and in the subsequent free kick Rodrygo made it 2-5.

Barcelona pulled back, and that was the end result as Real Madrid showed zero threats against a Barcelona side that dominated throughout the match. And if anyone still questions the Balon d'Or: while Vinicius Jr. was invisible throughout the match, Pedri completely dominated the midfield alongside Gavi and Pau Casado to a degree that was humiliating for Real Madrid.

I don't really care that Barcelona won, but it was entertaining to see them play so well, but one has to wonder about Real Madrid: I have always considered Carlo Ancelotti one of the best managers in the world, but in this match he seemed to have missed everything. Tchouameni and Lucas Vasquez were simply not up to the task, and he had no answers to Barcelona's midfield control. It was one of the worst displays of Real Madrid in that desert afternoon in Saudi Arabia.

Wednesday, January 08, 2025

2025 forecasts

It is hard to be optimistic about 2025, both in and outside football. Football, like the world in general, is becoming more tribal, hateful, since hate and tribalism mobilises more money. Fewer and fewer fans watch because they want to watch good football, but rather because they want to belong to their tribe and hate the other tribe.

It is sad, but with that out of the way I have my predictions for 2025 (I am notably bad at predicting though):

  • Liverpool will win the Premier League, and I think that Manchester City will squeeze into the top 4 instead of Nottingham Forest. Amorin will fail to qualify Manchester United to Europe.
  • Real Madrid or Liverpool will win the Champions League, whose current format will favour all the traditional top teams as the surprises in the league will all be eliminated in the first round of knock-outs. FC Barcelona will suffer from its financial mess and not get far.
  • Brazilian teams will be even more dominant in South America, and all four semifinalists of the Libertadores will be Brazilian
  • The Club World Cup will be a big economic success for FIFA as they get the European teams on board, who will completely dominate the tournament with some VAR and referee assistance
  • Real Madrid will win La Liga after a lucky streak ahead of Atletico Madrid. Valencia will be relegated and will have a hard time returning to the top flight.
  • France will win the UEFA Nations League.
  • FC Copenhagen will win the Danish League, Bayern Munich the German, Napoli the Italian, PSG the French.
  • Cristiano Ronaldo will return to Europe to finish his career.