The 2026 World Cup Groups

I did not watch the draw event. It was bound to be an extravagant and irrelevant event, and it appears it was since what everyone is talking about seems to be Mr. Trump. So let me start by congratulating Mr. Trump for achieving that everyone is talking about him, and not about the football draw, which is what interests me, and not all the other stuff.

The final setup of the groups still depends on the remaining playoff matches that will take place in March. I include the teams that I think will qualify in parenthesis:

Group A: 

• Mexico
• South Corea
• South Africa
• (Czech Republic)

The Mexican hosts drew a group where they should qualify, although they will have to play better than in their latest friendlies. The opening match will be a repeat of the 2010 opening match in South Africa in an upgraded Azteca stadium. South Corea is probably the other team to watch, although an UEFA side is set to qualify: Czech Republic, Ireland, Denmark or North Macedonia. Although I hope it will be Denmark, I think it will be either the Czechs or Irish, who have the spirit and commitment to qualify in what will be a final at home for each of them.

Group B:

• Canada
• Qatar
• Switzerland
• (Italy)

The Canadian hosts will be looking to progressing from a difficult group, perhaps in a third spot they will have to fight for against Qatar. In the meantime I think Switzerland will be group winners, even though it seems that the last team will be Italy, or maybe, Wales, Northern Ireland or Bosnia-Hercegovina. But another World Cup without Italy...?

Group C:

• Brazil
• Morocco
• Scotland
• Haiti

One of the most interesting groups, in particular because giants Brazil will be facing the African powerhouse, Morocco, who in 2022 were the first African team to make it to a World Cup semifinal and were recently crowned U-23 World Champions. Probably these two sides will play for the first spot, but will also face two teams that will attract a lot of neutral support: the Haitians who are back in a World Cup for the first time since 1974, and the charming Scots whose fans are some of the best in the world.

Group D:

•  USA
• Paraguay
• Australia
• (Turkey)

The North Americans are probably optimistic in this group, but may struggle because of arrogance. Although none of the other teams appear as the best, they are certainly strong. Australia have shown they are competitive and an always-fighting Paraguay are both teams that can defeat anyone on a good day. In the meantime we are looking at a UEFA team to qualify among Turkey, Kosovo, Slovakia and Romania.

Group E:

• Germany
• Ecuador
• Curacao
• Cote d'Ivoire

On paper this should be an easy group for the Germans, and if they do not win it, it will be a surprise. Ecuador and Cote d'Ivoire seem to be the teams that will fight to be runner-ups, and perhaps take a third place to go to the last-32. In the meantime small Curacao is playing its first World Cup, and there will be limited expectations, although if they pull a surprise, it will surely make them the darlings of the tournament.

Group F:

• Netherlands
• Japan
• Tunisia
• (Poland)

The two sides to watch in this group are the Netherlands and Japan, although Tunisia are certainly a competitive side that could also make it to the next round. In the meantime the last team is to be found among Poland, Ukraine, Sweden and Albania, where all, except Sweden, appear as strong sides. On paper the Dutch are favourites, but I think this will be one of the closest groups.

Group G:

• Belgium
• Egypt
• Iran
• New Zealand 

A group where the Belgians enter as big favourites, and anything but them winning the group would be disappointing. That said, Belgium has disappointed before, and in particular Iran and Egypt will be sides with a lot of spirit and strong players, and could surprise. New Zealand I do not expect much from; I may be wrong.

Group H:

• Spain
• Saudi Arabia
• Uruguay
• Cape Verde

Spain and Uruguay are huge favourites in this group, and the match between these two former World Champions will be one of the most expected matches in the group stages. In the meantime Saudi Arabia have already shown before that they are able to pull a surprise (they memorably defeated Argentina in 2022), while Cape Verde will be playing their first World Cup ever, and can only surprise, but it will be great if the do!

Group I:

• France
• Senegal
• Norway
• (Bolivia)

This could be the "group of Death". France may be slight favourites, but they are facing Senegal, who with a lot of French-born and -based players will be eager to repeat their legendary 2002 victory against the then-World Champions. In the meantime Norway are considered one of the Dark Horses this year having qualified in style. The last team will be found among Bolivia, Surinam and Iraq, all sides that should be capable of pulling a surprise.

Group J:

• Argentina
• Algeria
• Austria
• Jordan

The defending World Champions have pulled what on paper appears to be a very easy group. But it is becoming a tradition that the defending champions do bad in defending the title, and the Argentineans will also struggle against their own arrogance, in particular against Algeria and Austria, two competitive sides that may surprise. In the meantime Jordan, in their first World Cup ever, can only surprise.

Group K:

• Portugal
• Colombia
• Uzbekistan
• (RD Congo)

Portugal and Colombia will be one of the most awaited matches in the first round, with both teams being huge favourites in a group that count the debutantes of Uzbekistan, as well as one of the following: Jamaica, New Caledonia and RD Congo. I think the Congolese will make it, although appears to be a final against Jamaica.

Group L:

• England
• Croatia
• Ghana
• Panama

A quite exciting group with Croatia and England as favourities, but (my dear) Ghana will also be a side to watch, and magnificent to have their great fans back in the World Cup. Panama are playing their second World Cup ever, and seems like it could be a repeat of 2018 when they were trashed by England.  

Cruz Azul-Chivas

Last night Cruz Azul faced Chivas Guadalajara at home in the second leg of the Liga MX championship quarterfinals. The first match had ended 0-0 and there was a great atmosphere at the Estadio Olimpico Universitario with at least as many Chivas as Cruz Azul fans in what turned out to be a great match, but which also included the usual suffering that Cruz Azul is so known for.

In fact, Cruz Azul was dreadful in the first half. After only 8 minutes poor marking  following a corner kick gave Cade Cowell a chance he could not miss, and brought Chivas ahead. Only 6 minutes later the home team equalized by the Uruguayan striker Gabriel Fernandez in what was effectively their first attack. Despite this, Chivas continued a high pressure that made the Cruz Azul look shaky and full of mistakes, and Bryan Gonzalez brought Chivas ahead again following poor Cruz Azul defending.

There was not reason to be happy about Cruz Azul's first half, and while they came out with more pressure in the second half one still had the feeling that Chivas stood well as they pulled back. It was only in the 72nd minute, after steady Cruz Azul pressure, that Jeremy Marquez sneaked in the ball via the post and an equalizer that put Cruz Azul in the semifinals (because the team that ended higher in the league phase passes in case of a tie).

Cruz Azul is expert in suffering, and the following 20 minutes were suffering as Chivas put pressure on Cruz Azul. There were some close calls, but the event of the match came in the 86th minutes when Chivas was awarded a penalty. 

The veteran ex-Manchester United player, ex-Real Madrid player, Javier Hernandez ("Chicharito") was selected to take the penalty that would put Chivas with one leg in the semifinals. But as happens to any player, and to the delight of the suffering Cruz Azul fans, Chicharito completely overshot the goal, instead sending the ball into the stars above Mexico City.

Chivas continued attacking as the match went into 7 minutes of painful extra time. But exactly in the 97th minute Cruz Azul caught Chivas off guard, and the experienced Mexican midfielder Carlos Rodriguez lobbed the ball over the Chivas goalie to give Cruz Azul the 3-2 victory.

The semifinals will be interesting. Monterrey eliminated America in an intense match and will be facing the defending champions of Toluca in one semifinal, while Cruz Azul will face another Monterrey team, namely the Tigres of UNAM. Tigres progressed after coming from a 0-3 defeat to Tijuana to win 5-0 at home. 

Probably more suffering for Cruz Azul. 

 

The fury and the dream

In 1982, Northern Ireland arrived at their second ever World Cup. Despite the country’s rich footballing tradition, expectations were modest as the small British possession prepared to face Yugoslavia in their opening match. A hard-fought 0–0 draw offered a glimmer of hope: with a win over the unfancied Honduras, a place in the next round seemed possible. 

But a frustrating 1–1 left them on the brink. 

Their final match would be against the hosts — Spain. Back then, Spain were not celebrated for their style, but for La Furia — “The Fury.” 

Backed by passionate crowds and, at times, sympathetic refereeing, the home side were overwhelming favourites against the modest Irish team. Even Northern Ireland’s own players had little faith; they confirmed their plane tickets and checked out of their hotel before the match. 

But football thrives on disbelief. Against the odds, Northern Ireland stayed — not only in the tournament, but in history — when Gerry Armstrong, Watford’s tireless striker, scored the decisive goal in a 0–1 victory. Spain’s fury could not overcome Irish heart.

Scandinavian delight and dismay

With 48 teams in next year's World Cup it should be assumed that some Scandinavian team will qualify, and indeed, the first qualified team has been Norway, who will return to the World Cup for the first time since 1998. Norway has been awesome in a qualification group that included Italy, and have sealed their qualification with a 1-4 away victory to the Italians. Norway has built up a strong side with a lot of young players, and I already predict that they will be one of the teams to watch out for in the World Cup. 

Italy in the meantime is going to the play-offs and is in risk of losing its 3rd World Cup in a row. In this context Gennaro Gattuso's complaint sounds hollow: "It's not fair that six teams qualify in South America and the seventh plays a playoff, while here the groups are so tight", because they way Italy has played, getting beaten twice by Norway and struggling to defeat Israel, they would surely not have pulled a result in La Paz, 7th team in South America....

Good luck to the Italians in the play-offs, but it is only up to themselves to qualify.

For another Scandinavian side Denmark it was also up to themselves to qualify in all but theory by defeating Belarus at home. Denmark had already won 0-6 away, and it was perhaps arrogance or exaggerated optimism that meant that Brian Riemer decided to play without some of the best Danish players. 

But you do not qualify if you do not take every game seriously. Denmark was ahead 1-0 at halftime but went down 1-2 in the second half, and barely managed to get 2-2. The biggest concern for Denmark appears to be mental. Even though the Danes dominate and are favourites they are clearly shaken when the opposition appears to play against them, including Mr. Riemer, who seemed in dismay when Belarus scored the second goal. 

Now the Danes will face a nerve-wrecking final in Scotland. Scotland needs to win to qualify directly, but they will be at home with massive support, while the Danish team is better on paper, but lacks the mentality to fight.

The Danish manager of Sweden, Jon Dahl Tomasson, may be a candidate for Denmark manager if Riemer fails to qualify, despite his massive flop in Sweden. One would have expected Sweden to be competitive in a group with Switzerland, Kosovo and Slovenia, but after five matches Sweden are at the bottom with only one point. That said, strangely (and here Gattuso's criticism of South America rings even more hollow), Sweden could still qualify through their Nations League performance, that will give them a chance in the UEFA play-offs.

Sweden lost to Kosovo and Slovenia while Bolivia defeated Brazil. 

Who deserves a World Cup play-off?

Super Doku

Today I watched the Manchester City-Liverpool match in the English Premier League. A lot will already be written by the defending champions from Liverpool, who look to be struggling to defend their title. But let us focus on Manchester City: after missing a penalty, Erling Haaland made it 1-0 on a rather lucky header, and Nico made it 2-0 right before halftime. 

Jeremy Doku: the 23-year old Belgian was simply unstoppable, an extraordinary player who scored a fantastic third goal to crown what was in essence a perfect performance. If Jeremy Doku can continue developing and show more performances like today, he will be one of the best players in the world, and I have become a fan today.