The last-32

For the first time in World Cup history, we have 32 teams (too many!) in the knock-out round. So, the 32 teams are paired as follows: 

• Canada-South Africa: one of the surprise sides against one of the hosts. Both teams have for the first time ever progressed from the group stages. Canada are probably favourites but the South Africans have shown they must not be underestimated.
• Brazil-Japan: The five time world champions against up and coming Japan, who struggled to get a result against Sweden. Many people seem to think that Japan can make it, but I put my bet on Ancelotti’s Brazil.
• Germany-Paraguay: Thinking of this match makes me fall asleep. Paraguay only know how to defend; they never try to win a match. Germany always wins, even without trying.
• Netherlands-Morocco: this is the match to watch in the last-32. Morocco are strong, experienced and ambitious, as are the Dutch, who have been playing some great football. I will surely support the European side against the side that did not win the Africa Cup of Nations.
• France-Sweden: In my view France have been the best team in the tournament and they should hopefully walk over the Scandinavian side.
• Mexico-Ecuador: Mexico has only once defeated a CONMEBOL country in a World Cup: Ecuador in 2002. I think they will repeat the victory at home, in front of a passionate crowd, against an Ecuador side that only started playing with their potential when they defeated Germany.
• England-DR Congo: Most people will be cheering for the Congolese, but I hope England wins as I prefer to see the strong British side in a knockout match against a quality opponent.
• Côte d’Ivoire-Norway: two strong sides but with weaknesses, so this should also be one of the few interesting matches in the last-32. Very difficult to predict and both teams deserve to go through.
• Belgium-Senegal: The Belgians only woke up in their last group match, defeating New Zealand 5-1 to win the group. But they have not impressed. Senegal in the meantime lost two good matches in a difficult group, only to crush Iraq in their last group match. I think the Senegalese have the edge, but the Belgians are always unpredictable and have great players.
• USA- Bosnia Hercegovina: Pochettino’s USA were set to go through on maximum points but lost their last group match to Turkey. They still won the group, and I think Pochettino has paced his side to the knockout stages. So I do not give the Bosnians much of a chance.
• Spain-Austria: Spain has not been impressive, but they remain favourites and hard to see that they would not win this match.
• Switzerland-Algeria: Also a match that will not attract many neutral fans. Switzerland probably has the edge against an Algerian side that are not as strong as before.
• Portugal-Croatia: two top level European side that match each other well, so this will be a great match. Croatia has gone through with experience and solidity, while Portugal has not impressed. But both teams can defeat anyone in the world on a good day, and both will be great to see in the last-16.
• Australia-Egypt: Australia make me yawn, and will hope Egypt goes through because of the great Mo Salah.
• Argentina-Cape Verde: The little African nation are surely the darlings of the tournament and will have the support of most of the world. Not me. I will supporting the defending champions, but also have a soft spot for Cape Verde, so I mainly hope it will be good and fair match.
• Colombia-Ghana: May the best team win.

2025 forecasts

It is hard to be optimistic about 2025, both in and outside football. Football, like the world in general, is becoming more tribal, hateful, since hate and tribalism mobilises more money. Fewer and fewer fans watch because they want to watch good football, but rather because they want to belong to their tribe and hate the other tribe.

It is sad, but with that out of the way I have my predictions for 2025 (I am notably bad at predicting though):

• Liverpool will win the Premier League, and I think that Manchester City will squeeze into the top 4 instead of Nottingham Forest. Amorin will fail to qualify Manchester United to Europe.
• Real Madrid or Liverpool will win the Champions League, whose current format will favour all the traditional top teams as the surprises in the league will all be eliminated in the first round of knock-outs. FC Barcelona will suffer from its financial mess and not get far.
• Brazilian teams will be even more dominant in South America, and all four semifinalists of the Libertadores will be Brazilian
• The Club World Cup will be a big economic success for FIFA as they get the European teams on board, who will completely dominate the tournament with some VAR and referee assistance
• Real Madrid will win La Liga after a lucky streak ahead of Atletico Madrid. Valencia will be relegated and will have a hard time returning to the top flight.
• France will win the UEFA Nations League.
• FC Copenhagen will win the Danish League, Bayern Munich the German, Napoli the Italian, PSG the French.
• Cristiano Ronaldo will return to Europe to finish his career.

World Cup draw

 I have been busy with work, traveling, and non-football things in my head and heart, but I have nevertheless followed last week's World Cup draw, which points at some very interesting matches in Qatar (that should never have had the World Cup):

Group A:

• Qatar
• Ecuador
• Senegal
• Netherlands

This group could plausibly be the most difficult one to predict. Qatar are playing their first World Cup, but as hosts they have been preparing for years and will not want to disappoint at home (even though I will not support them). Senegal are African champions and with a strong core of experienced Europe-based players. Netherlands are always strong, but can also disappoint, while Ecuador has sufficient experience and skills to upset any team. Watch this group, and support all but Qatar.

Group B:

• England
• USA
• Iran
• Scotland/Ukraine/Wales

This is an interesting group that could potentially be the Anglo-Saxon world against Iran. Iran are surely not to be underestimated, having qualified with style, and will recall their 1998 group win over USA. England are probably favourites to win the group, but USA will recall that they have never been defeated by England in a World Cup, and most famously recall the 1950 miracle in Belo Horizonte. If Ukraine qualify, the group will be watched even more closely for political reasons in an already highly politicized World Cup.

Group C:

• Argentina
• Mexico
• Poland
• Saudi Arabia

This is a good draw for Argentina, although of course they should never underestimate any of the teams in the group. But Argentina is playing excellently, have a hungry Lionel Messi likely in his last World Cup, so should hopefully (I fully support Argentina) pull through. Mexico has looked very poor in qualification, so Poland and Saudi Arabia have good chances in pulling through, where expectations to Lewandowski's Poland will probably be highest.

Group D: 

• France
• Denmark
• Tunisia
• Peru/Australia

This group is curiously a 75% repeat of the 2018 group C, which included France, Denmark, Peru and Australia. That group was won by France (who went on to become World Champions), with Denmark as runners-up, and an excellent Peru was unlucky to be eliminated. France are surely favourites, but note that the defending winners tend to do badly when they have to defend their title (Denmark notably defeating France in 2002), and that may be a hope for the other teams. Denmark are surely much better than they were in 2018, but Peru will be looking to avenge their rather unfair 2018 defeat. Tunisia are the most unwritten chapter of the group, but never to be underestimated.

Group E:

• Spain
• Germany
• Japan
• Costa Rica/New Zealand

This could potentially be the "Group of Death". Two former World Champions Spain and Germany, and both teams are also contenders for the title. At the same time Japan is always highly competitive, growing stronger in every World Cup (remember their spectacular match against Belgium in 2018). In the meantime neither Costa Rica or New Zealand are to be underestimated: remember in 2014 when Costa Rica won the "Group of Death ahead of England, Italy and Uruguay?

Group F:

• Belgium
• Canada
• Morocco
• Croatia

This group has four exciting teams. Belgium is at the end of its most golden generation, and while they are still ranked number 1 in the world, one no longer has the feeling that they are able to go all the way. That said, they should be favourites in a group that sees the exciting Canadians, in the first World Cup since 1986, as well as Croatia, finalists and the world's darlings from 2018. Morocco is never to be underestimated, and may have hopes of fighting it out in the group.

Group G:

• Brazil
• Serbia
• Switzerland
• Cameroun

Brazil are surely huge favourites in the group, and contenders for the title that they have not taken since 2002. Of course they cannot underestimate any of the other teams, which have their strengths, but will have to fight it out between them. Switzerland may have a slight edge: a very strong team that eliminated France from the Euros, and won qualification ahead of European champions Italy, they have shown that they can take on everyone. Serbia has a strong base of experienced players but have never made it past the group stages since 1998. The same can be said of Cameroun; it is great to see the Lions in the World Cup again, but they have not made it past the group stages since 1990!

Group H:

• Portugal
• Ghana
• Uruguay
• South Corea

Portugal may be favourites in this group, even though nothing is written, of course, and Portugal can lose to all of these teams. That said, the match everyone thought about when they saw the draw was the legendary 2010 World Cup quarterfinal between Ghana and Uruguay, which saw Uruguay through after penalty kicks and Luis Suarez' infamous hand ball save. Ghana will look for revenge, but will have to keep their heads cool against an experienced Uruguay side, while Ghana at times has looked shaky (most recently in their disappointing Africa Cup of Nations). In the meantime South Corea is most certainly a team to reckon with, having qualified for every World Cup since 1986 they have the experience, although they have struggled to get past the group stages (That said, in 2018 they knocked out the defending champions of Germany).

The first finalists

The semifinal match between Italy and Spain went as I expected except for the result: the Spaniards, whose quality has varied enormously during the tournament played some of their best football against an Italian side that was not allowed to play the possessive attacking style that has characterized their games in the tournament so far, and with better strikers Spain could have carried the day. 

Despite Alvaro Morata´s equalizer following Federico Chiesa´s outstanding first goal for Italy, Spain missed big chances or simply poor shots against an Italian side whose defense did not look as steady as in previous matches (this may be a comfort to their opponents in the final). 

In the lottery of penalties the misses came firstly from Dani Olmo, who until then had played an outstanding match, and then Morata, whose miss will probably be remembered more than his goal, and add fuel to his many critics. 

Although Spain deserved better in this match there is no doubt that seen over the entire tournament Italy are the right finalists. They have been strong and have a strong team spirit led by the ever-smiling Chiellini, who appears to love every moment of the tournament. 

Perhaps Chiellini is one of the few people who have realized that it is only football, and enjoying it must come before the result... 

Like almost every Dane in the world I am excited about tomorrow´s match, but weary about Danish chances against a top-motivated English side playing in front of its home spectators. Denmark (luckily) defeated England in a Nations league match in October last year (a prelude to their excellent World Cup qualifiers and this tournament) and will play without the massive pressure of expectation that burdens the English players. But I would still say that chances are heavily stacked (90%) in England´s favour to make it to the final and face a fantastic Italian side!

What I think and what I wish for

So we now have the four quarterfinals after some really exciting last-16 eliminations, and after these I feel more confident to make some predictions, although in these knock-out matches anything can happen, and it has been reaffirmed that there are no bad teams in this tournament. 

On a good day everyone can beat anyone.

And there is certainly also a difference on what I think will happen and what I wish for. So here come my predictions for the quarterfinals:

• Spain-Switzerland: both teams come from two extraordinary knock-out matches, but I would not expect another epic drama; Spain are enormous favourites and must be delighted that they will not be facing France. At the same time Switzerland are surely hoping for more, and will be playing without pressure, but they will be facing a Spanish side hungering for success and with a lot of talent. I think it is 99% sure that Spain will make a semifinal, although I hope that the little guy can beat the big guy again, and Switzerland pull another surprise.
• England-Ucraine: England defeated a poor German side, but nobody has scored against them, and they are looking more and more like having the cold-blooded confidence to go all the way. Ucraine in the meantime are there through a combination of luck and fight, but not exciting play. They defeated the most boring team of the tournament, Sweden, 2-1 after extra time, in one of the most boring matches of the tournament, and thus deserve to be where they are, but they are almost sure to get no further. On the more personal level it hurts to admit that I would rather see England in the semifinal, because I think it would be good for the tournament.
  
• Denmark-Czech Republic: In my unashamed subjectivity I hope that Denmark will win and make it to the semifinal. But I am concerned at how happy the Danes are not to be facing the Dutch when the Czechs actually showed themselves a much better team that the Dutch. Football teams are more than the sum of their individual players, and both Denmark and the Czechs have shown that, but I think that the Czechs have an upper-hand, because I think that they are more cold-blooded and will enter the match better-prepared than the Danes. I think the Czechs will win, but I hope the Danes will.
• Belgium-Italy: In some ways this is a moral final between two of the best sides of the tournament, but they have also been shaky at times, and certainly don't appear invincible. Belgium struggled to defeat Portugal (and were indeed a bit lucky) and with some injuries appears to be vulnerable to the Italians. The Italians also struggled to defeat Austria, but they prevailed with their heads level and made it to the next round. I therefore think that Italy is slightly more likely to prevail (60-40), but I certainly support Belgium wholeheartedly!

So if we take how I think it will go, these will be the semifinals:

• England-Czech Republic
• Italy-Spain

In this scenario I predict a final between England and Spain.

But in my hopeful scenario these would be the semifinals:

• England-Denmark
• Belgium-Switzerland

And hopefully a final between my two favourite teams in the tournament, Denmark and Belgium (with Denmark taking the title!)

Disappointed Denmark

It was with big expectations that Denmark went into the European Championships, but after two defeats Denmark is almost out of the tournament.

It is a pity, as Denmark have been extremely unlucky, even beyond the horrible thing that happened to Eriksen in the match against Finland. Denmark was the better side but lost 0-1 in Finland's only attack, and today Denmark was also unlucky, but against the best team in the world, Belgium.

Denmark were by far the better team in the first half, but was only ahead by one goal after Yussuf Poulsen's early strike. Kevin De Bruyne came on in the second half for Belgium, and the Belgians managed to put pressure on a Danish side that was nevertheless still fighting with spirit. But this was not enough against the quality of the Belgians when the speed of Romelu Lukaku and the genious of De Bruyne combined to serve the ball for Thorgan Hazzard and an equalizer.

1-1 was a good result in a match that already before the tournament was expected to be difficult, but given Denmark's many attacks it felt like a disappointment, and when Kevin De Bruyne scored what would become the winner for Belgium, it surely became a disappointment. Denmark continued attacking, but to no avail.

The Danes can be proud of the quality and spirit they put into the match, but in the end what wins matches are goals, and unfortunately the Danes are very inefficient in front of goal (something that was also the case against Finland). To have any chance of progressing Denmark must defeat Russia (and given how poor they are at scoring, this would not appear likely) and at the same time hope that Belgium defeats Finland in a match where Belgium has nothing to play for,  while Finland has everything to play for, as a tie will likely put them through. 

My tip for both matches is 0-0, which would result in Belgium and Russia going through on first and second spot, while Finland will go through as 3rd, and Denmark will be out.

The sixteen best in the world

It has been an exciting group stage of the 2014 World Cup, full of drama, entertainment and passion. We have sixteen nations left. For the first time ever three of these are from the Concacaf after USA qualified in their dullest match of the tournament, where it did seem they relied on Portuguese and German largesse. It is also the first time ever two African sides qualified: Nigeria and Algeria. The latter were a great surprise, holding a poor Russia to 1-1. I guess we all expected Ivory Coast to be there, but they have been another of the tournament's great disappointments.

Five teams from South America have progressed, but we are certain to see at least two eliminated in the next round, as they will face one another. There are six teams from Europe; where Spain, England, Italy and Portugal have been disappointments, Netherlands, Germany, Belgium and France are all candidates for the title, while Greece upset everyone by progressing.

We are thus looking at the following matches:

• Brazil-Chile: Two of the most exciting teams of the tournament. This could have been Brazil-Spain, but Chile is an outstanding replacement. While Brazil are favourites, Chile will be no pushover, and the pressure on the Brazilians will be enormous from now on. Alexis Sanchez said today he was most nervous about the referee, which is a real worry indeed.
• Netherlands-Mexico: Mexican coach Miguel Herrera has won many friends with his charisma, but he has also built up a great side. The Dutch have been outstanding, but also shown vulnerabilities against Australia. However, the Dutch remain most likely to eliminate Mexico in the last-16, and I think they will.
• Costa Rica-Greece: Two of the surprises of the tournament and they could hardly be more different. While Costa Rica has won many supporters, Greece are a more controlled and tactically clever, not to say defensive and boring. Costa Rica will have all the support, but I think that the Greek will again upset everyone, and be the biggest surprise in the quarterfinals (where they are likely to face the Dutch).
• Colombia-Uruguay: This will be an intense South American clash. The Uruguayans are upset, seeing themselves as victims after the whole Luis Suarez affair. Colombia have been outstanding both on an off the pitch, and are considered outsiders for the title. Colombia defeated Uruguay 4-0 in Bogota in qualification, but doubt they can do the same again. At the same time, Uruguay grows with the tournament, but will miss Suarez. I think Colombia will win a narrow and dramatic match. The winner will probably face Brazil in the next round, so this is the start of the fall of the South American domino.
• France-Nigeria: France were strong in their first two matches, and looked to be saving themselves in their final group match against Ecuador. In the meantime Nigeria made it through despite a loss to Argentina, where they nevertheless played well. I do believe that the French winner mentality under Didier Deschamps will prevail and France will be in the quarterfinals.
• Germany-Algeria: The winner of this match will probably face France in the quarterfinals, so no matter what, that quarterfinal will be historic. This match will be historic as well: in 1982 Algeria defeated Germany - the first time ever an African side defeated a European in a World Cup. But Algeria were eliminated when the Germans cheated their way to the next round with a "fixed" 1-0 victory over Austria. The Algerians will be hungry for revenge. But this German team is looking as potential champions, and while the Algerians will fight their heart out, Germany will, as always, prevail.
• Argentina-Switzerland: All Argentina's success comes down only to Lionel Messi. And this will be their doom, as other players, who are supposedly good, do not perform. Higuain and Lavezzi, besides playing poorly, have not put their heart into the matches. Di Maria cannot hold an entire match, while Argentina's defense continues to be a joke. Switzerland had a terrible match against France, but their striker Shaquiri has proven to be deadly. I think he will make a feast of the Argentine defense, and if they can control Messi, the Swiss will win, as Argentina has nothing else to offer.
• Belgium-USA: Belgium progressed with three victories but without impressing. The USA were both physically well prepared and organized, but also somewhat lucky to make it through. They were very bad against Germany, but could still upset anyone who does not respect them. This includes the Belgians, who I nevertheless think will win. This would make the quarterfinal a fight between Swiss and Belgian chocolate!

Wow! Fantastic matches ahead of us, and more excitement! I think at least three European teams will make it to the semifinals (Switzerland/Belgium, France/Germany, Netherlands/Greece) and one South American (Brazil/Colombia). I hope I am wrong.

My World Cup predictions

The time has come for my World Cup predictions. I am, in my own view, notoriously bad at it. I analyze too much, playing on the safe side, and guessing wrongly on the surprises that are always going to happen in a tournament.

I have played the entire tournament on paper, and here are my predictions:

• Group A: Brazil will win. Not by big margins, which will lead to some criticisms. In second place I find it very difficult, but think that Croatia may just squeeze past Mexico on goal difference (their last group match ending in a tie). The match to watch will indeed be Mexico-Croatia on June 23rd.
• Group B: Chile is being touted as a potential surprise, but I think the surprise will be that they will not surprise. Spain and Netherlands will open with a safe 0-0, and then go on each to win their next two matches. Spain's scoring problems will put them in second place in the group, even though they will try to score many goals in the final match against Australia. Chile will try hard against Spain on June 18th. Chile-Spain will be the match to watch.
• Group C: Such an exciting group! I want all to progress, but I think one of the surprises will come here, as Japan takes first spot with two ties and a victory, same as Colombia, but with better goal difference. It will be comfortable for both teams to play in the last round, where Ivory Coast will defeat Greece for nothing. Japan-Ivory Coast will be the match to watch, on June 14th.
• Group D: Another difficult group, but where Uruguay will benefit by experience and near-home advantage, while weather and schedule will be the enemies of Italy and England, who will struggle in all three matches. So I think Uruguay will win the group, opening with a victory against Costa Rica, where they can subsequently play comfortably against England and Italy. It is difficult, but I think Italy will squeeze through ahead of England. The match to watch is certainly England-Italy on June 14th, as this may decide second place.
• Group E: France, Switzerland and Ecuador all have similar options. I think France and Switzerland will start with victories, but overtly confident Frenchmen will underestimate Ecuador in the last group match, where Ecuador will defeat France to take second place behind Switzerland. Ecuador-France on June 25th is the match to watch.
• Group F: I predict no surprises in this group. Argentina and Nigeria will win their matches to tie in their last group match, and Argentina taking first place on goal difference. Match to watch will be Argentina- Nigeria (a modern classic by now) on June 25th.
• Group G: Germany will win the group due to their schedule, where they know that they have to close by scoring many goals against the USA in their last match. Klinsmann will be fired after losing heavily to his home country. Ghana will fight bravely, but will not manage to beat a Portuguese side that will be inspired by Ronaldo. Match to watch will be Portugal-Ghana on June 26th is a safe bet.
• Group H: Belgium will start with two victories against Algeria and Russia, and will be touted as potential champs. But last match against South Corea, who will be pressured to win after defeating Algeria but losing to Russia, Belgium will be too confident and the by-now experienced Coreans will upset them. This will end with a group where Belgium, Russia and South Corea will all have 6 points. Goal difference will mean Russia and South Corea will progress. Match to watch: South Corea-Belgium on June 26th.

 This will give the following matches for the last 16:

• Brazil-Spain: The end of the road for the world champions, I think, but them winning would not be impossible. It is not unlikely that the winner of this match will be world champion.
• Netherlands-Croatia: A dramatic match where I think the Dutch will win, not unlikely after extra time.
• Japan-Italy: Here I will go for the surprise. Italy squeezed through, and will be tired after a heavy schedule, while Japan are thoroughly well prepared. Japan in the quarterfinals!
• Colombia-Uruguay: This will be a dramatic South American clash, where any of the two could prevail. I tip Colombia, more due to the fact they also defeated Uruguay in qualification.
• Argentina-Ecuador: Argentina will defeat Ecuador, but will struggle. It may take extra time, and the first cracks will start in the Argentine side.
• Switzerland-Nigeria: A repeat of the youth World Cup final of 2009 in Nigeria, where the Swiss won. But this time Nigeria will get its revenge and be another African side progressing to the quarterfinals.
• Germany-South Corea: The end of the road for South Corea against a German side that by this point will be geared for the tournament.
• Russia-Portugal: It will be an epic clash, but Portugal will prevail, and progress to the quarterfinals.

Now it becomes more and more difficult... The quarterfinals:

• Argentina-Portugal: Portugal will at this point be inspired and motivated, and obviate the cracks in Argentina's defense. Cristiano Ronaldo will outshine Messi, and Portugal will be in the semifinal.
• Brazil-Japan: Will be a great match because of the close links between the two countries. It will particularly go over in the football history of Japan, who will put on a great match. But Brazil will prevail and be in the semifinals.
• Nigeria-Germany: The Nigerians will play a fantastic match trying to become the first African side in a semifinal. But a last minute doubtful penalty kick will give Germany the victory in what will be the most controversial decision of the World Cup. This is a lot of detail, and not very likely to happen, but a safe bet is to say Germany will go through.
• Colombia-Netherlands: The Dutch experience and technique will be too much for a Colombian side that will have won many fans during the tournament. Netherlands will make it to another semifinal.

Already at the semifinals!!!! Any little change in the results above could totally upset it all! But here we go:

• Portugal-Netherlands: This will be another epic clash, perhaps going into extra time, maybe even penalty kicks. Portugal, who by now will be seeing the flame of glory ahead of them will win and make it to their first World Cup final ever.
• Brazil-Germany: How proper that the two greatest footballing nations of all time should play in a World Cup in Brazil! It will be a match that will go over in history. Brazil will win.

So the final will be an epic Lusophone clash:

BRAZIL-PORTUGAL

My prediction stops here. Anything can happen in any match until this point, and in a final, anything can happen. Brazil will be favourites, but a Portugal inspired by a Cristiano Ronaldo who will enter the history books of World Cup legends, will be a difficult adversary. 

Note that the final could also be Spain-Portugal! Also, Spain-Brazil is possible if Spain win their group.

Is all this likely to happen? Probably not; as I mentioned I am usually wrong (but it is difficult-o!). 

If I had done it with my heart rather than my head, the final would be Argentina-Brazil, and Nigeria and Colombia would have made it to the semifinal. Also, Ghana and Belgium would have progressed, and Chile might have fulfilled some of the expectations. But ok, all this could also happen....

Good luck to all nations and all fans though!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The last-16 and predictions

The World Cup has passed the initial group stages and there are 16 teams left for the following play-off matches:

• 26/6: Uruguay-South Corea
• 26/6: USA-Ghana
• 27/6: Germany-England
• 27/6: Argentina-Mexico
• 28/6: Netherlands-Slovakia
• 28/6: Brazil-Chile
• 29/6: Paraguay-Japan
• 29/6: Portugal-Spain

It is a wonderfully diverse group of teams, with 5 South American sides, two from North America, two Asian, six European (who will all be facing one another...) and disappointingly only one team from Africa, Ghana, who will have all the support of Africa and from most of the world for their match against the USA.

My tips are the following:

I believe that Uruguay, who has been strong and disciplined, will defeat a Corean side that has not been convicing, although they have been well-organised. Still, I believe Uruguay are by far the better team.

I support Ghana, but their poor striking force will be their doom against a strong USA side, where Landon Donovan has been the saviour. USA will make it to the quarterfinals.

Germany-England will be a repeat of one of the most classic matches of international football, and the match will be another drama to go over to history. That said, neither team is as brilliant as their history, but I believe that a slightly more cynical England side will win against a German team that I would nevertheless much rather see through.

Argentina has been great, and I believe that they will carry the day against Mexico, although as in 2006, it will not be easy, and likely be a close match where the Mexicans will be their usual dirty.

The Netherlands should be in the quarterfinals, and I see them as the greatest favourites in the last-16 against Slovakia, although the Slovakians showed that they should not be underestimated!

Chile and Brazil will be a great South American encounter, but Brazil will surely win. Chile are charming and offensive, but as inefficient up front as a team full of grandmothers, and with so many mistakes in defense that Brazil will surely win.

Paraguay-Japan is sure to be an exciting and close match, but an organised Japan team, with some extraordinary and quick players, should carry the day against an organised but at times inefficient Paraguayan side.

Portugal-Spain is, with England-Germany, to be one of the most exciting matches of the tournament. Spain is by far the better side than the Portuguese, but the latter will be very excited for this match. I believe the sensation will be there, and Portugal will win a close match, perhaps after extra time and penalties.

Thus, my predictions for the quarterfinals are these:

• Uruguay-USA
• England-Argentina
• Netherlands-Brazil
• Japan-Portugal

Good luck to Denmark!

With my World Cup fever raging, I am even dreaming football. Last night I had a very vivid dream that Denmark lost 6-1 to the Netherlands, whom they will be facing tomorrow. I guess it is nerves about the fact that Denmark has been playing poorly in the friendlies before the tournament, and that many of the Danish stars are fighting with injuries.
At least history and the tournament so far tells us that Denmark is unlikely to lose 6-1, so I rather trust this than my dreams!
And well, just for a little luck, the Danish team's song, sung by the great band Nephew:
The Danish Way to Rock.

World Cup 2010 predictions

I recently played through the world cup schedule, and some very interesting things came out:

• African teams will struggle. Not only are they all in difficult groups, but in the next rounds they will struggle as well. I tip Nigeria (group B) and Ghana (group D) to go through, both on the second spot. In that case Ghana would play England (who I tip to win group C) and Nigeria would be facing the winner of group A (I tip Uruguay, but if South Africa makes it, we are looking at an all-African last-16). I tip Cameroon to go through on second spot in group E (ahead of Denmark), but then they will face Italy (winners group F), and that will be their end).
• Spain, one of the main favourites, is looking to have a difficult path. Even though I tip them to win their group H, they are crossing with group G, where they may face Portugal, Brazil, Ivory Coast or (less likely) North Corea. I tip an all-thrilling Brazil-Spain already in the last-16. And although I tip Spain to win, they will be facing the defending champions of Italy (winners of group F, and to defeat Cameroon) in the quarterfinal, and that will be Spain's exit, just like in 1994.
• Italy, after cruising through round 1 and the last-16, will then upset the Spaniards in the quarterfinals, but could well then face Argentina in the semifinals.
• Argentina, the hugely talented side apparently has a quite good trajectory, but will probably not play as spectacular as expected, but their skills will carry them through the first spot in group B. Thus, they will face the runners-up of group A (I tip Mexico, a repeat of 2006 Round-of-16 match). In the quarterfinal they will face the winner of group F (very difficult, but I tip Serbia) or the runner-up of group C (I tip USA). Thus, we would be looking at Argentina-Serbia or Argentina-USA in the quarterfinal, and I think Argentina would win. (potentially an Argentina-Germany, but I don't tip Germany to go beyond round 1).
  
• This would mean Argentina-Italy (or Argentina-Spain/Brazil) in the semifinals.
• I think Brazil will not win their group G, but make a second on goal difference to Portugal. Thus, Portugal will face Chile (runner-up group H) in the last-16, in what would surely be a thrilling match. Tipping with my heart, I think Chile would go through, and face a strong Netherlands side in the quarterfinals.
• Netherlands will easily win their group E, and face the runners-up of group F (I tip Paraguay), to defeat them, to then take on Chile in the quarterfinals. There has to be a surprise team, and I believe it could be Chile, who will defeat the Netherlands and face England in the semifinals.
• England, under Fabio Capello, will easily win group C, and in a close match dispatch Ghana (or perhaps Australia as runners-up in group D?), before facing Uruguay (winners group A; it would perhaps be more interesting if it were France, but I don't tip France beyond round 1) or Nigeria (runners-up group B). I believe England would narrowly defeat either side and make it to the semifinals.
• I am thus tipping the two following semifinals: England-Chile and Argentina-Italy.
  
• We are looking at one of the most thrilling rivalries in world cup football as a potential final: England-Argentina! (if both teams coincide on first or second spot in their groups, they will probably play in the quarterfinals, if not, they can play in the final at the earliest)

Some thrilling probabilities to look forward to in the knock-out stages, notably Spain-Brazil/Portugal/Ivory Coast; England-Australia/Germany, Argentina-Mexico/Uruguay/France/South Africa!
I think my tips are good, although it is extremely hard, and I am seldomly right, but would love to hear what others are tipping!

Who will be world champion in...

I was just listening to a podcast of the best football show in the world, the BBC world football phone-in, where Sean Wheelock, the North American football commentator was arguing why he thought the US would be world champion by 2020.
I really like Sean Wheelock, but like with David Beckham staying in the MLS, he is probably as wrong as when Pelé said that an African team would be world champion by the year 2000.
It ain't gonna happen: while many of his points about the growth of the sport in the US are true, the passion and commitment needed to foster such talents and following is simply not there.

And they should start by not calling it soccer.

I am sorry to say this, but at least until 2040 the world cup is only going to be won by Europeans and the occasional South Americans.

Champions League 04-05: last 16 predictions

The last-16 round of the 2004-05 Champions League starts tonight. Here are my predictions for the next round:

Real Madrid-Juventus: This will be a match between a strong attack and a super-defence. Juventus defence is looking immensely strong, while Real Madrid’s strikers have not looked the best this season. Also, in defence, in spite of improvements, Real Madrid has a long way to go. Juventus will go to the quarterfinals.
Liverpool-Leverkusen: Likely to be well-fought encounters. Liverpool showed against Olympiakos that they can fight to the end, but are not doing to well in the Premier League. I believe though, that a strong Leverkusen will edge ahead, maybe after extra time.
PSV-Monaco: Monaco is not as strong as this year, and will have a difficult time defeating a well-playing PSV side. However, I believe that in the end, the potent striking force of Monaco will help them go to the quarterfinals.
Bayern Munich-Arsenal: Arsenal has had the shot for the CL for many seasons, but the tournament seems cursed for them. As they are not looking as strong any more, I believe that a Bayern Munich team, that has been marvellous in the first round, will be victorious.
FC Porto-Inter: With many changes, FC Porto is far from being as strong as last season. At the same time Inter has displayed their usual good defence, with a potent striking force. Inter should go on to the quarterfinal.
Barcelona-Chelsea: A true clash of titans. Barcelona has not been that strong in the last few weeks, but looks concentrated on the match against Chelsea. I believe the striking force of Barcelona will triumph.
Manchester United-AC Milan: Man U will be fighting hard for the title. But AC Milan is notoriously hard to defeat, at the same time as they possess some of the best strikers in Europe. So does Man U, but Van Nistelroi & Co. will have to play their best to defeat a strong Italian defence. It will be a close game, but I believe Milan will win.
Werder Bremen-Lyon: Lyon should never be underestimated, and has been surprisingly strong this season, but I believe a Werder Bremen team, with an excellent Klasnic in attack, will edge their way to the quarterfinals.

It will be great football! Can’t wait for tonight! Good Luck to fans of all teams!

Cheers!

Champions League 2004-2005: First round predictions

Tonight, another exciting season of the Champions League is starting. I am looking forward to the customary Tuesday and Wednesday nights with high-quality football and a pint of beer. For me, this has become a happy tradition!
This will surely be another interesting season, full of surprises. Although I failed in every single one of my predictions last season, I will not let myself be scared, and will optimistically try again. Here are my predictions for the first round of this season UEFA Champions League:

Group A: Although Monaco has sold out a lot of players, they still look strong, and with the experience from last season, they will win this group. It will be close though, as both Liverpool and Deportivo will fight hard. In the end, I believe Liverpool will get the second spot. Liverpool is looking stronger this season, with Mr. Benitez ready to do with Liverpool what he did with Valencia.
Group B: Real Madrid will surely win the group, as they look much stronger than other teams of the group. At the same time, I believe Roma will get the second spot, although they will have to fight hard for it against a dangerous Dynamo Kiev side.
Group C: This group is very intersting, with three of the European top teams. Juventus will win the group, as the Italians have a strong attack, together with the usual 'cattenaccio' defense. The always exciting team from Ajax Amsterdam will get the second spot. I believe that all the circus in Bayern Munich will lead to another disappointing season.
Group D: This group will have a surprise, which is that Lyon will win it. The French champions will be a strong contester this season. However, Lyon and Manchester United will be unchallenged winners of this group, as Manchester United will surely take the second spot.
Group E: In this group, there is one sure winner, which is Arsenal. As usual, Arsenal is hungry to get success in the Champions League. Although I don't believe it will be this season either, I think that Arsenal will start with force in this group. For the second spot, PSV Eindhoven seems to have the best chances.
Group F: AC Milan and Barcelona. These are two of the strongest teams in Europe right now. The Italian champions have become even stronger than last season, and now look as a very good tip for winners of the whole thing. Barcelona has bought new players, and is playing entertaining and attacking football. Both teams should go to the next round, although I find it hard to say in which positions. Shame for Celtic and Shaktar.
Group G: The defending Spanish champions and UEFA cup winners from Valencia will win the group. They will edge ahead of the other teams, because of the strong defense, combined with its new good Italian strikers. Inter will be a bit of a disappointment, although they will edge ahead of Werder Bremen on the second spot. All German teams will be out in the first round.
Group H: This group will be a duel between Mr. Mourinho's current team, Chelsea, and his former team, Porto. Because of the new aquisitions, Chelsea will win the group. However, defending champions from Porto will get to the next round with their second spot.

So, those are my predictions! I hope I am right, but I also know I am often not!
Good luck to the fans of all teams!

Semifinal predictions.

Again, I was not wholly right in my tips for the quarterfinals, although I only missed the hugely disappointing French. I try again:
Portugal-Netherlands: Portugal has the confidence, the support and the strength to go all the way, and Netherlands, which is filled with internal strife, will go out. In spite of this, I predict an exciting and intense game as only the orange attacking machine can give us! Van Nistelrooi will be good for a couple of goals, but so will Portugal. 2-2, and Portugal will get a victory after extra time. If it goes to penalties... who knows?
Greece-Czechia: This will be a tactical football wonder. It will be a chess-match between two of the greatest football minds of our time: Mr. Brückner and Mr. Reghagel. The offensive, entertaining and technically-fit Czech attacking machine, against the disciplined organised efficient Greek fighters. If the Greeks can keep their head cold, they will be efficient against the mistakes the Czechs surely will make. Everyone, except the Danes, have been ahead against the Czechs. So will the Greeks, and they will prevail. What a challenge for Nedved and Co.! If they can make it, they will surely be champions... Or what...?
Goood luck to the wonderful fans of all these teams!!

quarterfinal predictions 2

I was not totally right on who would be playing the quarterfinals... I seldomly am... In any case, I will give it another try, now for the semifinals:
ENGLAND-PORTUGAL: I am not going to hide that I am not too fond of the English team, in spite of an amazing Wayne Rooney, whom I look forward to seeing much more in the future. I believe the current English team has forgone earlier English attributes, and is now playing an organised an efficient "cattenaccio"-like style, but incredibly boring... Portugal, on the other hand, is an entertaining and offensive team. Although often unstable, they showed strength after the great pressure in first round defeat to Greece. I believe they will continue doing this, and will defeat the English 2-1.
FRANCE-GREECE: France are overwhelming favourites. Mr. Henry has started scoring, and they will beat the Greeks. But it won't be easy: the Greeks will be well organised in defence, and have some dangerous counter-attacks. I believe France will only win 1-0 after extra time.
SWEDEN-NETHERLANDS: Both teams have shown strengths and weaknesses so far. The Dutch are too happy about themselves, which is a greta weakness. However, Van Nistelrooi has been excellent, and if Mr. Avocaat lets young Robben play, they will defeat Sweden. Sweden's attack, although scary, can be neutralised, and they will. The Dutch will win 1-0.
CZECH REPUBLIC-DENMARK: I want Denmark to win, but I have very little faith in it. Also, the Czechs are a favourite of mine, and I am sad that one of these two teams will have to leave the tournament. But the Czechs have been amazing, even when their reserves beat Germany. With Mr. Nedved back, it will be a difficult challenge for the Danes, who will have to play better than any of their games until now. However, both teams like to attack, so I predict an exciting 3-2 for the Czechs.

Good luck to all!

quarterfinal predictions

Last games of first round coming up. It is interesting that only two teams are out for sure (Bulgaria and Russia),a nd otherwise many have chances of passing. There will be many disappointments, and many happy people. These are my "subjective" predictions:

GROUP A: Greece will keep up the good work, and will defeat Russia. With their organisation and skills, they will be difficult for any team in the quarterfinal. I think Portugal will have to show something. Besides 30 minutes against Russia, they have been a great disappointment. Although better, Spain have also been disappointment. The team does not really have as many stars as most people brag about, and have shown signs of weakness in both their games. I believe the home-team will prevail, and this tournament will be another failure for Spain.
GROUP B: The French have so far been a bit arrogant, but with Switzerland, they must surely show their skills, and defeat a team which, in spite of still having a theoretical chance, should be no match for the mighty "Bleu's". Portugal in quarterfinal! England Croatia will be interesting, and I think that England, with their "ITalian" organisation fromt he first two games will get the necessary point to progress on the second spot. Greece-England will be a match between two of the best organised teams in the tournmament.
GROUP C: Here, I will be subjective. As a Dane, I want Demark to beat the Swedes, and so I believe they will win a narrow 2-1. Poor Swedes, they have been playing well, and it will be sad to see Henke and co. out. But sorry guys, that is football; come to COpenhagen and have a beer instead... Italy will surely beat the already defeated Bulgarians.
GROUP D: Best game fo the tournament was Netherlands-Czech Republic. Both teams should go to the next round. And so they will. Latvia will be no match to the DUtch attacking machine, and the Germans are such a huge disappointment again, that Nedved and Co. will get at least a tie and win the group.

I have been wrong before though, so we will see.. Good luck to all!!!!